Oil prices have steadied at around $50 a barrel this month as markets begin to find their equilibrium after a dramatic spike to nearly $150 in the first half of last year gave way to an unprecedented collapse to near $30.
Asian energy ministers and their Middle East counterparts meet in Tokyo on Sunday to discuss the outlook for prices.
Here is a brief timeline charting the price highs and lows since January 2008.
Jan 2, 2008: US crude briefly breaks the $100 barrier for the first time on the first trading day of 2008. Prices rise fairly steadily through the first half of the year.
March 5: Despite new record price highs of over $104 a barrel, Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which pumps more than a third of the world's oil, says it will not put more oil on the market. It says there is enough oil, and blames US economic "mismanagement" for global prices.
June 6: Prices surge $11 to a record high near $139 a barrel on a slumping dollar and mounting tensions in the Middle East. Soaring crude leads a frenzied broad-based commodity rally on US grains and oilseed futures markets.
June 7: Average retail price for regular gasoline tops $4 a gallon for the first time in the United States.
July 11: Oil peaks at $147.50 for Brent and $147.27 for US crude.
July 15: A sell-off begins after remarks by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke indicating a significant fall in demand in the United States, the world's top consumer.
July 18: Oil prices drop by more than $18 from a week ago to $128.88 per barrel. The price fall is triggered by a 3 million barrel increase in US crude stocks and falling US demand.
Aug 15: Prices continue sharp decline, falling to around $110 a barrel for Brent crude.
Sept 15: Prices below $100 a barrel for first time since March 4, and still falling.
Sept 22: Oil spikes $16 in biggest one-day gain on record. Prices pop over $120 a barrel, extending a climb from a low near $90 the previous week after the United States unveils a sweeping rescue plan for its battered financial sector.
But soon after, oil prices begin a heavy slide. Nov 21: National average price of regular gasoline falls below $2 a gallon for first time since March 2005 - dropping 3.1 cents to $1.989.
Dec 19: Oil drops below $34 a barrel - charting about a 75 per cent loss of value since July.
Jan 2, 2009: Oil falls more than $3 on first day of trading, with US crude at $41.25 a barrel and Brent at $42.18.
April 24: US crude just below $50 a barrel, Brent just above at $50.29.
Agencies
Showing posts with label OPEC. Show all posts
Showing posts with label OPEC. Show all posts
Friday, April 24, 2009
Monday, December 29, 2008
Jet Airways, Kingfisher to cut air fares in January
Private air carriers Jet Airways and Kingfisher announced reduction in fares following steep fall in Aviation Turbine Fuel prices.
While Jet Airways said it was reducing air fare ranging 15-40 per cent from tomorrow, Kingfisher Airlines said it would effect fare cut across its network from January 1.
"Jet Airways is reducing basic fares ranging from 15-40 per cent across most of the domestic flights with effect from tomorrow," a Jet Airways spokesperson said.
The fare cut would be across all domestic sectors, the spokesperson said tonight.
Civil Aviation Minister Praful Patel had repeatedly asked the airlines to pass on the benefit of sharp drop in ATF prices to passengers. Earlier in the day, Kingfisher Airlines said it would effect a fare cut across its network from January 1.
"Kingfisher Airlines will begin the New Year on an aggressive note by slashing fares on its network," Kingfisher Airlines Chairman, Vijaya Mallya, said in a statement here. He, however, did not specify the quantum by which fares would come down.
The current low prices of ATF allows Kingfisher to pursue an opportunity to significantly increase market share by offering the fine five-star flying experience at reduced fares, he said.
Earlier, Kingfisher had said that it would effect fare cut only after the government classifies ATF in the Declared Goods category. The airlines across the board are demanding the Government to classify ATF in the Declared Goods category.
Under the declared goods category, there will be a uniform 4 per cent sales tax on air fuel across the country. The proposal is now before the Parliament.
However, several state governments are likely to oppose the uniform taxation as it would cause revenue loss to them. Now, the sales tax varies from four per cent to 32 per cent, and accounts for over 35 per cent of airlines' operational cost.
Over the last four months, there has been a sharp decline in ATF prices. While some air carriers earlier this month reduced the fuel surcharge between Rs 200 and Rs 400, they did not touch the basic fare.
While Jet Airways said it was reducing air fare ranging 15-40 per cent from tomorrow, Kingfisher Airlines said it would effect fare cut across its network from January 1.
"Jet Airways is reducing basic fares ranging from 15-40 per cent across most of the domestic flights with effect from tomorrow," a Jet Airways spokesperson said.
The fare cut would be across all domestic sectors, the spokesperson said tonight.
Civil Aviation Minister Praful Patel had repeatedly asked the airlines to pass on the benefit of sharp drop in ATF prices to passengers. Earlier in the day, Kingfisher Airlines said it would effect a fare cut across its network from January 1.
"Kingfisher Airlines will begin the New Year on an aggressive note by slashing fares on its network," Kingfisher Airlines Chairman, Vijaya Mallya, said in a statement here. He, however, did not specify the quantum by which fares would come down.
The current low prices of ATF allows Kingfisher to pursue an opportunity to significantly increase market share by offering the fine five-star flying experience at reduced fares, he said.
Earlier, Kingfisher had said that it would effect fare cut only after the government classifies ATF in the Declared Goods category. The airlines across the board are demanding the Government to classify ATF in the Declared Goods category.
Under the declared goods category, there will be a uniform 4 per cent sales tax on air fuel across the country. The proposal is now before the Parliament.
However, several state governments are likely to oppose the uniform taxation as it would cause revenue loss to them. Now, the sales tax varies from four per cent to 32 per cent, and accounts for over 35 per cent of airlines' operational cost.
Over the last four months, there has been a sharp decline in ATF prices. While some air carriers earlier this month reduced the fuel surcharge between Rs 200 and Rs 400, they did not touch the basic fare.
Friday, December 26, 2008
Will oil prices rebound in post-Christmas trade?
World oil prices rebounded in Asian trade on Friday after tumbling to four-year lows before the Christmas break, with economic gloom weighing on the market, analysts said.
New York's main contract, light sweet crude for February delivery, rose 93 cents to 36.28 dollars a barrel after closing down 3.63 dollars at 35.35 in US trade on Wednesday.
Brent North Sea crude for February delivery rose 1.04 dollars to 37.65 dollars. In London the contract settled on Wednesday 3.75 dollars lower at 36.61 dollars, its lowest since July 2004.
After taking a one-day trading break for Christmas, oil reopened higher on Friday partly because of technical factors, said Ken Hasegawa, manager of the energy desk at Newedge Japan brokerage.
"After a sharp drop in sentiment on Wednesday, before the holidays, today (there is) a slight technical rebound," he said from Tokyo.
Another factor boosting prices was the US government's latest weekly report on crude stockpiles in the world's largest energy consumer, Hasegawa said.
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) report, released Wednesday, showed US crude inventories sank 3.1 million barrels in the week ending December 19. The drop was far heavier than market expectations.
The EIA added that crude reserves were 9.1 percent higher than at the same stage last year.
Analysts said that recent US data showing that the world's biggest economy remains in a recession were likely to keep crude oil prices under pressure in the immediate term.
A sharp global economic downturn that has slashed the world's demand for energy has led the price of crude oil to collapse by about 75 percent since hitting record highs above 147 dollars per barrel in July.
Oil markets are pricing in a continued decline in economic activity despite efforts by governments around the world to stimulate activity, MF Global energy analyst John Kilduff said.
"The energy markets appear as unappreciative of the stimulus efforts as any of the other markets and the pricing in of doom and gloom are producing price levels that transcends reality," he said.
"Obviously we haven't reached the ultimate end point yet."
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which produces about 40 percent of the world's crude, agreed last week to cut output by 2.2 million barrels per day to shore up the market.
Prices have continued to slide despite OPEC's announcement.
Source: Agencies
New York's main contract, light sweet crude for February delivery, rose 93 cents to 36.28 dollars a barrel after closing down 3.63 dollars at 35.35 in US trade on Wednesday.
Brent North Sea crude for February delivery rose 1.04 dollars to 37.65 dollars. In London the contract settled on Wednesday 3.75 dollars lower at 36.61 dollars, its lowest since July 2004.
After taking a one-day trading break for Christmas, oil reopened higher on Friday partly because of technical factors, said Ken Hasegawa, manager of the energy desk at Newedge Japan brokerage.
"After a sharp drop in sentiment on Wednesday, before the holidays, today (there is) a slight technical rebound," he said from Tokyo.
Another factor boosting prices was the US government's latest weekly report on crude stockpiles in the world's largest energy consumer, Hasegawa said.
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) report, released Wednesday, showed US crude inventories sank 3.1 million barrels in the week ending December 19. The drop was far heavier than market expectations.
The EIA added that crude reserves were 9.1 percent higher than at the same stage last year.
Analysts said that recent US data showing that the world's biggest economy remains in a recession were likely to keep crude oil prices under pressure in the immediate term.
A sharp global economic downturn that has slashed the world's demand for energy has led the price of crude oil to collapse by about 75 percent since hitting record highs above 147 dollars per barrel in July.
Oil markets are pricing in a continued decline in economic activity despite efforts by governments around the world to stimulate activity, MF Global energy analyst John Kilduff said.
"The energy markets appear as unappreciative of the stimulus efforts as any of the other markets and the pricing in of doom and gloom are producing price levels that transcends reality," he said.
"Obviously we haven't reached the ultimate end point yet."
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which produces about 40 percent of the world's crude, agreed last week to cut output by 2.2 million barrels per day to shore up the market.
Prices have continued to slide despite OPEC's announcement.
Source: Agencies
Sunday, December 14, 2008
Is oil price heading towards $25-30 a barrel?
Global investment banks Merrill Lynch and Goldman Sachs, which had earlier this year forecast oil prices would surge to USD 200 per barrel level, now foresee it slipping to USD 25-30 level, while Indian analysts anticipate a strong resistance at 40 dollars.
After hitting a peak of over 147 dollars in July this year, crude oil prices have declined sharply and are currently trading near 45 dollars level.
Goldman Sachs' commodity research team in its latest research note has predicted that the oil price might slip to 30 dollars per barrel level in the next three months.
Meanwhile, the firm's energy equity research team, led by Arjun Murti, said in another report that it is cutting its forecast for 2009 to 45 dollars, from 80 dollars previously, due to global economic slowdown.
Murti, who is known as 'oil guru', had shot to fame for rightly predicting a spike in the price to USD 100 when it was trading at around USD 40 level. Later in May, Murti forecast a spike to 150-200 dollars level in the next 6-24 months.
In an interview with the stock market weekly Barron's in June, when oil price were hovering at about 135 dollars, Murti had said that oil prices might fall below 75 dollars, but after 20 years.
The latest report from Murti's team has, however, said that there was a possibility of prices falling below USD 40 level shortly.
Indian analysts, however, see a strong resistance to the oil prices slipping below USD 40 level and do not foresee any possibility of USD 25-30 level.
"Crude oil prices may not fall below 40 dollar a barrel. Rather it will consolidate at 40 dollar a barrel level," Kotak Commodoties Vice President Si Kannan said.
Source: Agencies
After hitting a peak of over 147 dollars in July this year, crude oil prices have declined sharply and are currently trading near 45 dollars level.
Goldman Sachs' commodity research team in its latest research note has predicted that the oil price might slip to 30 dollars per barrel level in the next three months.
Meanwhile, the firm's energy equity research team, led by Arjun Murti, said in another report that it is cutting its forecast for 2009 to 45 dollars, from 80 dollars previously, due to global economic slowdown.
Murti, who is known as 'oil guru', had shot to fame for rightly predicting a spike in the price to USD 100 when it was trading at around USD 40 level. Later in May, Murti forecast a spike to 150-200 dollars level in the next 6-24 months.
In an interview with the stock market weekly Barron's in June, when oil price were hovering at about 135 dollars, Murti had said that oil prices might fall below 75 dollars, but after 20 years.
The latest report from Murti's team has, however, said that there was a possibility of prices falling below USD 40 level shortly.
Indian analysts, however, see a strong resistance to the oil prices slipping below USD 40 level and do not foresee any possibility of USD 25-30 level.
"Crude oil prices may not fall below 40 dollar a barrel. Rather it will consolidate at 40 dollar a barrel level," Kotak Commodoties Vice President Si Kannan said.
Source: Agencies
Saturday, December 6, 2008
Oil could plummet down to $25 a barrel!
Oil prices are likely to keep falling until well into next year and could reach $25 a barrel before recovering, US bank Merrill Lynch. In a research report published on Thursday, it said oil prices should begin to rally in the second half of 2009.
Merrill Lynch recently cut its forecast for the average price of US crude oil futures and North Sea Brent crude oil to $50 a barrel from a previous estimate for both crudes of $90.
"With demand vanishing across all key oil consuming regions, benchmark crude oil prices continue to plummet," it said. "In the short-run, market participants will focus on both OPEC and perhaps even non-OPEC producer responses to balance the market."
"A temporary drop below $25 is possible if the global recession extends to China and significant non-OPEC production cuts are required," it said.
"In our view, oil prices could find a trough at the end of Q1 2009 or early Q2 2009 with the seasonal slowdown in demand. Then, as economic activity starts to strengthen, we see oil prices posting a modest recovery in the second half of 2009."
Oil prices hit a peak above $147 a barrel in July but have fallen more than $100 since then as the severity of the global economic downturn has become clear.
Merrill Lynch said a combination of high oil prices and high leverage had proven dangerous for the global economy.
"On October 1, we lowered our average crude oil price forecast in 2009 to $90 per barrel based on a global GDP growth forecast of 3 percent. Since then, our economists have revised their 2009 global GDP growth forecast down to 1.3 percent, a scenario consistent with a global recession.
"As a result, we are now lowering our average WTI and Brent crude oil price forecast to $50 per barrel for 2009."
It said the major downside risk to its price forecast would be a revision of economic growth assumptions for China, which are currently at 8.6 percent for next year.
"In the short-run, global oil demand growth will likely take a further beating as banks continue to cut credit to consumers and corporations," it said. "We now expect an outright contraction in global oil demand in 2009."
Source: Economic Times
Merrill Lynch recently cut its forecast for the average price of US crude oil futures and North Sea Brent crude oil to $50 a barrel from a previous estimate for both crudes of $90.
"With demand vanishing across all key oil consuming regions, benchmark crude oil prices continue to plummet," it said. "In the short-run, market participants will focus on both OPEC and perhaps even non-OPEC producer responses to balance the market."
"A temporary drop below $25 is possible if the global recession extends to China and significant non-OPEC production cuts are required," it said.
"In our view, oil prices could find a trough at the end of Q1 2009 or early Q2 2009 with the seasonal slowdown in demand. Then, as economic activity starts to strengthen, we see oil prices posting a modest recovery in the second half of 2009."
Oil prices hit a peak above $147 a barrel in July but have fallen more than $100 since then as the severity of the global economic downturn has become clear.
Merrill Lynch said a combination of high oil prices and high leverage had proven dangerous for the global economy.
"On October 1, we lowered our average crude oil price forecast in 2009 to $90 per barrel based on a global GDP growth forecast of 3 percent. Since then, our economists have revised their 2009 global GDP growth forecast down to 1.3 percent, a scenario consistent with a global recession.
"As a result, we are now lowering our average WTI and Brent crude oil price forecast to $50 per barrel for 2009."
It said the major downside risk to its price forecast would be a revision of economic growth assumptions for China, which are currently at 8.6 percent for next year.
"In the short-run, global oil demand growth will likely take a further beating as banks continue to cut credit to consumers and corporations," it said. "We now expect an outright contraction in global oil demand in 2009."
Source: Economic Times
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