The Trough of Disillusionment highlights technologies and markets where interest has waned as experiments and implementations fail to deliver (see Figure 1).
“Blockchain technologies have not yet lived up to the hype and most enterprise blockchain projects are stuck in experimentation mode,” said Avivah Litan, distinguished analyst and research vice president at Gartner. “Blockchain is not yet enabling a digital business revolution across business ecosystems and may not until at least 2028, when Gartner expects blockchain to become fully scalable technically and operationally.”
For blockchain to become mainstream, Gartner said users shouldn’t have to worry about picking the right platform, the right smart contract language, the right system interfaces, and the right consensus algorithms. Additionally, concerns about how users will interoperate with partners that use different blockchain platforms for their projects must be rectified.
“We are witnessing many developments in blockchain technology that will change the current pattern. By 2023, blockchain platforms will be scalable, interoperable, and will support smart contract portability and cross chain functionality. They will also support trusted private transactions with the data confidentiality required. All together, these technology advances will take us much closer to mainstream blockchain and the decentralized web, also known as Web 3.0,” said Ms. Litan.
“Over time, permissioned blockchains will integrate with public blockchains, and will take advantage of shared services while supporting the membership, governance and operating model requirements of permissioned blockchains,” said Ms. Litan.
Gartner clients can read more in the report “Hype Cycle for Blockchain Technologies, 2019.” More information on the technologies driving digital innovation can be found in the Gartner Special Report “Hype Cycles: Five Priorities Shape the Further Evolution of Digital Innovation.” This research collection helps organizations identify opportunities that enable the creation of new business and operating models.
More information on blockchain strategy can be found on the Gartner Blockchain Insight Hub and in “The Real Business of Blockchain: How Leaders Can Create Value in a New Digital Age,” a book on creating blockchain value by Gartner analysts David Furlonger and Christophe Uzureau. The Real Business of Blockchain launches on October 15 and is available for preorder now on Amazon, Barnes and Noble and Indiebound.