Credit card companies have little to celebrate as many analysts brace for 2009 to be one of the worst years on record for consumer credit.
Losses for the industry could top $70 billion, but it is hard to predict how bad the pain will be.
US consumers have never before been so deeply in debt. There was nearly $1 trillion of credit and charge card debt outstanding as of October, up more than 25 per cent since 2003, according to the US Federal Reserve. That is in addition to $10.54 trillion in mortgage debt.
Unemployment, already at 15-year highs, is expected to rise to its highest levels since the early 1980s, when credit cards were not nearly as widespread.
In short, there's more debt than ever and fewer people are able to pay it.
"In many ways, we're in uncharted territory," said John Williams, an analyst at Macquarie Research.
Major credit losses are big trouble for Citigroup Inc, Bank of America, and other card issuers such as American Express Co and Discover Financial Services, which have seen their shares lose up to 80 per cent of their value in 2008.
The United States is not standing idly by. Citigroup received $45 billion of taxpayers' money in October and November. Bank of America has received $25 billion. American Express, which became a bank holding company, got approval last week to receive $3.4 billion from the taxpayer-funded Troubled Asset Relief Program.
Lenders, seeing potential big losses, are trying to protect themselves by tightening credit availability, which leaves consumers with fewer options.
This year's holiday shopping season was the worst since at least 1970, according to a report from the International Council of Shopping Centers.
"It is hard to see the light at the end of the tunnel," Williams said.
NOWHERE TO HIDE
No credit card company is safe. According to Citigroup analysts, more than one-fourth of the credit card portfolios of Citibank, Bank of America Corp, Capital One Corp, and Discover are subprime, which could lead to further losses.
Meanwhile, American Express is heavily exposed to troubled markets with high default rates such as Florida and California, and JP Morgan Chase & Co has to digest the portfolio of failed savings and loans company Washington Mutual.
Together, these six companies hold around 90 per cent of the total US outstanding credit card debt.
Citigroup and American Express have said they are tightening lending to mitigate their losses. JP Morgan and Bank of America declined to comment, while Capital One did not return calls seeking comment.
Credit card companies have reported increased losses. Discover, the No 4 US credit card network, posted worse-than-expected results in its fourth fiscal quarter, the first sign of the harsh deterioration of the industry, when the economic downturn picked up steam in October and November.
Discover almost doubled the money it set aside to cover credit losses. Analysts said its competitors would likely do the same in coming Credit Cards quarters, leading to lower earnings.
"Things have changed pretty rapidly in the last two months. I'm hopeful that we will see the worst in 2009, but I don't know yet," David Nelms, chief executive of Discover, told reporters in a recent interview.
Many analysts and credit card executives look at 2009 and remember the beginning of the mortgage crisis in early 2007, when lenders consistently underestimated what was coming up.
Said Chris Brendler, analyst at Stifel Nicolaus, "The risk is that things get much worse than expected."
Source: Agencies
Saturday, January 3, 2009
Here are the Ten US Business Predictions for 2009!
Two words apply well for the year just ended: Whoa, Nelly! With the financial markets in chaos, the jobs landscape littered with layoffs, and the most audacious outpouring of federal funds since the Great Depression, most of us are ready to look forward to cheerier times in 2009.
Here at BusinessWeek, we've again donned our prognostication helmets and took a gander into the old crystal ball for a few (educated?) guesses at what this new year holds in store. True, we failed to predict the two major events of 2008—the election of Barack Obama and the financial meltdown rippling across the world economy. But we did nail one call: 2008 was the year of $100-per-barrel oil—we just didn't anticipate its stunning slide back to $40.
Recession Reigns
Expect more budget cuts, layoffs, shutdowns, bankruptcies, and mergers. Look for beleaguered bookseller Borders Group (BGP) to slip into Chapter 11, and for Barnes & Noble (BKS) to take over some of those stores—but only a few. Also expect Chrysler to merge into General Motors (GM) at a bargain-basement price as Chrysler's private equity owners at Cerberus Capital race to get that investment off their books. With the rapid collapse of oil prices, and the resulting financial pressures, expect two or more mergers among Big Oil. Our best guess?
Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA) buys troubled BP (BP), in part to avoid regulatory issues that could come from merging with a U.S. oil company. There will also be tremendous pressure on wireless phone prices, causing financial headaches for companies like AT&T (T). Newspaper companies' profits will continue to shrink; watch for a billionaire such as financier George Soros or New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg to lead a rescue of The New York Times (NYT), which will become part of a not-for-profit corporation by the end of the year.
Bernanke: Four and No More
President-elect Obama has nowhere to go but down in his approval ratings, so he may lose some popularity points as me makes tough choices in his early months. Also expect to see the last vestiges of the Bush Administration head for the exits. Declaring that his work is done, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will announce he'll leave the Fed upon the expiration of his four-year term as chairman on Jan. 31, 2010.
While mostly not his fault, the recession has hurt his standing with the Obama Administration—and it also has worn him down on a personal level. He'll be succeeded by Lawrence Summers, former Treasury Secretary under the Clinton Administration.
There will also be realignment on the global level. Look for Canada to forge stronger labor and trade ties with Europe in an effort to further unhinge itself from the flailing U.S. economy. Canada also will snub its southern neighbor to strike more energy and resource deals with other countries—especially China, which will continue its ascendance on the world stage in spite of economic setbacks. Also, it's a good bet Vladimir Putin will reassume the Russian presidency.
Oil Rises Again
There's a fair chance for a resurgence in oil prices, even if they dip below $30 in the next few months. Crude is likely to average $60 or $70 per barrel in 2009. OPEC will get its act together and rein in supply, and demand won't shrink as much as speculators had feared.
Still, oil won't spike to the $100-plus range because consumers remain more energy-conscious. Oil companies will continue to invest in major projects as cash-strapped nations will open their doors to foreign investments just as they have done in the past when times are tough. And commodities are no longer the place for speculators to make a fast buck.
Workers Go Creative
Economists agree that further mass layoffs will continue in 2009, and the unemployment rate could reach the double digits. That means workers will turn creative about job opportunities. Look for freelancing and small business applications to explode as laid off workers attempt to strike out on their own. The downturn also is spurring more business and other graduate school applications, and young people will continue to take shelter at universities to ride out the storm.
Bling Takes a Break
Who can afford bling anymore? Who wants to? The ostentatious—eye-popping expense accounts, showy jewelry, McMansions—will be out and frugality will be back in fashion. Suddenly clipping coupons becomes trendy and, fortified by new Web services, hitchhiking stages a comeback. Boxed wine, already a budget sensation in Europe, will take off in the U.S. Look for eBay (EBAY) to enjoy a revival as Americans turn to the underground market to raise money and scour for bargains.
Business Embraces Big Government
Long considered a thorn in the side of commerce, the government will continue to be the apple of the business community's eye. Why? In tough times, Uncle Sam remains the economy's last resort. That doesn't mean there won't be plenty of fights over how to regulate industries and how to create not just Big Government, but also Smart Government.
But by the time all is said and done, the Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP) funding will go well beyond $700 billion. President Obama will request, and Congress will approve, another several hundred billion in aid. Much of that will go to homeowners, although airlines will probably get a slug of cash as will auto parts makers.
Digital TV Nightmare
Chaos ensues in February when U.S. broadcasters cease analog TV signals, throwing millions of Americans into a dark-screen panic. Despite nearly $1 billion in spending on educational campaigns alerting Americans to the change, surveys show that many of the 40 million or so likely to be affected still don't realize what the digital broadcast shift means to them. The government is offering a $40 subsidy to help pay for converter boxes—but plenty of Americans still using older analog TVs have no idea.
3D Returns in a Big Way
Recession notwithstanding, innovations in 3D technology will flourish. Computing technology firm NVIDIA (NVDA) is bringing realistic 3D effects on the desktop into the market this year, and more movie theatres will have IMAX screens. Consumers also will get a peek at James Cameron's much ballyhooed Avatar, a 3D movie and game the storied producer has been slaving over since 2004.
Consumers Fight Back
Tapped out consumers will look for advocates in Congress for protection against predatory or deceptive practices in areas from Credit-card fees to mortgages to exorbitant charges for text messaging by wireless companies. Legislation like the Credit Cardholders' Bill of Rights, which passed in the House in September, will have a better shot at passing the Democrat-controlled Congress and being signed by President Obama.
Housing Hits Bottom, At Last
Super-low mortgage rates—engineered by the government to help zap the economy—finally motivate us to shop for houses again. Prices will remain weak, as people who had kept their houses off the market suddenly put them up for sale as soon as they see a little buying interest. Expect home prices to continue to fall through the end of 2009. While the decline will mean trouble for some, for others, it's a golden opportunity to buy. By early 2010 credit and confidence in the market will be restored, and smart investors will be pleased to see the housing market start to recover.
Source: Economic Times
Here at BusinessWeek, we've again donned our prognostication helmets and took a gander into the old crystal ball for a few (educated?) guesses at what this new year holds in store. True, we failed to predict the two major events of 2008—the election of Barack Obama and the financial meltdown rippling across the world economy. But we did nail one call: 2008 was the year of $100-per-barrel oil—we just didn't anticipate its stunning slide back to $40.
Recession Reigns
Expect more budget cuts, layoffs, shutdowns, bankruptcies, and mergers. Look for beleaguered bookseller Borders Group (BGP) to slip into Chapter 11, and for Barnes & Noble (BKS) to take over some of those stores—but only a few. Also expect Chrysler to merge into General Motors (GM) at a bargain-basement price as Chrysler's private equity owners at Cerberus Capital race to get that investment off their books. With the rapid collapse of oil prices, and the resulting financial pressures, expect two or more mergers among Big Oil. Our best guess?
Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA) buys troubled BP (BP), in part to avoid regulatory issues that could come from merging with a U.S. oil company. There will also be tremendous pressure on wireless phone prices, causing financial headaches for companies like AT&T (T). Newspaper companies' profits will continue to shrink; watch for a billionaire such as financier George Soros or New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg to lead a rescue of The New York Times (NYT), which will become part of a not-for-profit corporation by the end of the year.
Bernanke: Four and No More
President-elect Obama has nowhere to go but down in his approval ratings, so he may lose some popularity points as me makes tough choices in his early months. Also expect to see the last vestiges of the Bush Administration head for the exits. Declaring that his work is done, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will announce he'll leave the Fed upon the expiration of his four-year term as chairman on Jan. 31, 2010.
While mostly not his fault, the recession has hurt his standing with the Obama Administration—and it also has worn him down on a personal level. He'll be succeeded by Lawrence Summers, former Treasury Secretary under the Clinton Administration.
There will also be realignment on the global level. Look for Canada to forge stronger labor and trade ties with Europe in an effort to further unhinge itself from the flailing U.S. economy. Canada also will snub its southern neighbor to strike more energy and resource deals with other countries—especially China, which will continue its ascendance on the world stage in spite of economic setbacks. Also, it's a good bet Vladimir Putin will reassume the Russian presidency.
Oil Rises Again
There's a fair chance for a resurgence in oil prices, even if they dip below $30 in the next few months. Crude is likely to average $60 or $70 per barrel in 2009. OPEC will get its act together and rein in supply, and demand won't shrink as much as speculators had feared.
Still, oil won't spike to the $100-plus range because consumers remain more energy-conscious. Oil companies will continue to invest in major projects as cash-strapped nations will open their doors to foreign investments just as they have done in the past when times are tough. And commodities are no longer the place for speculators to make a fast buck.
Workers Go Creative
Economists agree that further mass layoffs will continue in 2009, and the unemployment rate could reach the double digits. That means workers will turn creative about job opportunities. Look for freelancing and small business applications to explode as laid off workers attempt to strike out on their own. The downturn also is spurring more business and other graduate school applications, and young people will continue to take shelter at universities to ride out the storm.
Bling Takes a Break
Who can afford bling anymore? Who wants to? The ostentatious—eye-popping expense accounts, showy jewelry, McMansions—will be out and frugality will be back in fashion. Suddenly clipping coupons becomes trendy and, fortified by new Web services, hitchhiking stages a comeback. Boxed wine, already a budget sensation in Europe, will take off in the U.S. Look for eBay (EBAY) to enjoy a revival as Americans turn to the underground market to raise money and scour for bargains.
Business Embraces Big Government
Long considered a thorn in the side of commerce, the government will continue to be the apple of the business community's eye. Why? In tough times, Uncle Sam remains the economy's last resort. That doesn't mean there won't be plenty of fights over how to regulate industries and how to create not just Big Government, but also Smart Government.
But by the time all is said and done, the Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP) funding will go well beyond $700 billion. President Obama will request, and Congress will approve, another several hundred billion in aid. Much of that will go to homeowners, although airlines will probably get a slug of cash as will auto parts makers.
Digital TV Nightmare
Chaos ensues in February when U.S. broadcasters cease analog TV signals, throwing millions of Americans into a dark-screen panic. Despite nearly $1 billion in spending on educational campaigns alerting Americans to the change, surveys show that many of the 40 million or so likely to be affected still don't realize what the digital broadcast shift means to them. The government is offering a $40 subsidy to help pay for converter boxes—but plenty of Americans still using older analog TVs have no idea.
3D Returns in a Big Way
Recession notwithstanding, innovations in 3D technology will flourish. Computing technology firm NVIDIA (NVDA) is bringing realistic 3D effects on the desktop into the market this year, and more movie theatres will have IMAX screens. Consumers also will get a peek at James Cameron's much ballyhooed Avatar, a 3D movie and game the storied producer has been slaving over since 2004.
Consumers Fight Back
Tapped out consumers will look for advocates in Congress for protection against predatory or deceptive practices in areas from Credit-card fees to mortgages to exorbitant charges for text messaging by wireless companies. Legislation like the Credit Cardholders' Bill of Rights, which passed in the House in September, will have a better shot at passing the Democrat-controlled Congress and being signed by President Obama.
Housing Hits Bottom, At Last
Super-low mortgage rates—engineered by the government to help zap the economy—finally motivate us to shop for houses again. Prices will remain weak, as people who had kept their houses off the market suddenly put them up for sale as soon as they see a little buying interest. Expect home prices to continue to fall through the end of 2009. While the decline will mean trouble for some, for others, it's a golden opportunity to buy. By early 2010 credit and confidence in the market will be restored, and smart investors will be pleased to see the housing market start to recover.
Source: Economic Times
Oil falls to below $42 a barrel in Asia
Oil prices fell below $42 a barrel Friday in Asia after Russia and Ukraine said a dispute over natural gas payments wouldn't affect shipments to Western Europe.
Light, sweet crude for February delivery fell $3.05 to $41.55 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by afternoon in Singapore. Trading was closed Thursday for New Year's Day.
The contract rose $5.57 on Wednesday, the last trading day of 2008, to settle at $44.60 after Russia threatened to cut off natural gas supplies to Ukraine. Russia followed through with that threat Thursday, though both countries pledged they would keep supplies to the rest of Europe flowing.
Russia's gas monopoly Gazprom shut off gas supplies after talks broke down over Ukraine's payments for past shipments and a new price contract for 2009. Gazprom said it had boosted natural gas deliveries through other pipelines to Western Europe.
The European Union depends on Russia for about a quarter of its gas, with some 80 per cent of that delivered through pipelines controlled by Ukraine.
Concerns that the week-old conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza could disrupt supplies in the oil-rich Middle East helped keep prices from falling further. Israeli troops massed on the Gaza border Thursday in preparation for a possible ground offensive.
Oil prices began 2009 the same way they spent the most of the second half of 2008 _ going down. Crude peaked at $147.27 a barrel in July before plummeting to as low as $33.87 on Dec. 19.
Prices fell 54 per cent last year after soaring 57 per cent in 2007.
Investors remain focused on the slowing global economy and its impact on crude demand. The Department of Energy said earlier this week that U.S. fuel consumption fell 3.7 per cent in the four weeks ended Dec. 26 from a year earlier.
In other Nymex trading, gasoline futures fell 3.55 cents to $1.03 a gallon. Heating oil dropped 3.55 cents to $1.41 a gallon while natural gas for February delivery slid 2.2 cents to $5.60 per 1,000 cubic feet.
In London, February Brent crude fell $3.31 to $42.28 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.
Source: Agencies
Light, sweet crude for February delivery fell $3.05 to $41.55 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by afternoon in Singapore. Trading was closed Thursday for New Year's Day.
The contract rose $5.57 on Wednesday, the last trading day of 2008, to settle at $44.60 after Russia threatened to cut off natural gas supplies to Ukraine. Russia followed through with that threat Thursday, though both countries pledged they would keep supplies to the rest of Europe flowing.
Russia's gas monopoly Gazprom shut off gas supplies after talks broke down over Ukraine's payments for past shipments and a new price contract for 2009. Gazprom said it had boosted natural gas deliveries through other pipelines to Western Europe.
The European Union depends on Russia for about a quarter of its gas, with some 80 per cent of that delivered through pipelines controlled by Ukraine.
Concerns that the week-old conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza could disrupt supplies in the oil-rich Middle East helped keep prices from falling further. Israeli troops massed on the Gaza border Thursday in preparation for a possible ground offensive.
Oil prices began 2009 the same way they spent the most of the second half of 2008 _ going down. Crude peaked at $147.27 a barrel in July before plummeting to as low as $33.87 on Dec. 19.
Prices fell 54 per cent last year after soaring 57 per cent in 2007.
Investors remain focused on the slowing global economy and its impact on crude demand. The Department of Energy said earlier this week that U.S. fuel consumption fell 3.7 per cent in the four weeks ended Dec. 26 from a year earlier.
In other Nymex trading, gasoline futures fell 3.55 cents to $1.03 a gallon. Heating oil dropped 3.55 cents to $1.41 a gallon while natural gas for February delivery slid 2.2 cents to $5.60 per 1,000 cubic feet.
In London, February Brent crude fell $3.31 to $42.28 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.
Source: Agencies
Teja Raju appointed new CEO of Maytas Infra
Maytas Infra, promoted by Ramalinga Raju, Chairman of Satyam Computer Services and his sons, has appointed Teja Raju as the new Chief Executive Officer of the company. He will be assuming the role of a CEO in addition to he present charge he holds as the Vice President of the company, said a spokeswoman of the company.
The move comes close on the heels of CEO of Maytas Infra P K Madhav's arrest, for allegedly defaulting payments to investors of Nagarjuna Finance Limited (NFL) to the tune of Rs 100 crore. PK Madhav was on the Board when NFL raised money.
"PK Madhav is presently under judicial remand and Teja Raju will be the CEO of the company till the law takes course," said the spokeswoman of Maytas Infra.
Satyam Computer Services was to acquire 51% stake in Maytas Infra, but was aborted following investor's ire to call off the deal. The promotes of Maytas Infra including Ramalinga Raju and his sons hold 36.64 per cent stake in the company.
The move comes close on the heels of CEO of Maytas Infra P K Madhav's arrest, for allegedly defaulting payments to investors of Nagarjuna Finance Limited (NFL) to the tune of Rs 100 crore. PK Madhav was on the Board when NFL raised money.
"PK Madhav is presently under judicial remand and Teja Raju will be the CEO of the company till the law takes course," said the spokeswoman of Maytas Infra.
Satyam Computer Services was to acquire 51% stake in Maytas Infra, but was aborted following investor's ire to call off the deal. The promotes of Maytas Infra including Ramalinga Raju and his sons hold 36.64 per cent stake in the company.
Will US Treasury mull Citi-style rescues to auto giants?
The US Treasury Department has given itself free rein in deciding the rescues of companies in the finance and auto sectors, according to two Treasury statements published this week.
The Treasury on Friday released guidelines for its Targeted Investment Program (TIP), part of emergency legislation enacted in early October to ease a credit crunch from the worst global financial meltdown since the Great Depression.
In the statement, the Treasury outlined the principles of the program under which it rescued ailing banking giant Citigroup on November 23.
Under TIP, the Treasury said it would determine the eligibility of participants and the allocation of resources "on a case-by-case basis."
"Treasury may invest in any financial instrument, including debt, equity, or warrants, that the secretary of the Treasury determines to be a troubled asset, after consultation with the chairman of the board of governors of the Federal Reserve System and notice to Congress," the department said.
Among the criteria in determining a financial firm's eligibility is "whether the institution is sufficiently important to the nation's financial and economic system that a loss of confidence in the firm's financial position could potentially cause major disruptions to credit markets ... or lead to similar losses of confidence or financial market stability that could materially weaken overall economic performance."
Wednesday, the Treasury Department posted on its website a description of its Automotive Industry Financing Program, justifying after the fact its decision to lend a combined 13.4 billion dollars in TARP funds to embattled automakers General Motors and Chrysler to stave off their imminent collapse.
"The objective of this program is to prevent a significant disruption of the American automotive industry that poses a systemic risk to financial market stability and will have a negative effect on the real economy of the United States," it said.
Similar to its approach to the finance industry, the Treasury said it would determine eligibility of participants in the program on a case-by-case basis.
The Treasury announced on December 19 a massive rescue of cash-strapped GM and Chrysler, facing a threat of imminent bankruptcy that could create economic chaos and throw millions out of work across the country.
Source: Agencies
The Treasury on Friday released guidelines for its Targeted Investment Program (TIP), part of emergency legislation enacted in early October to ease a credit crunch from the worst global financial meltdown since the Great Depression.
In the statement, the Treasury outlined the principles of the program under which it rescued ailing banking giant Citigroup on November 23.
Under TIP, the Treasury said it would determine the eligibility of participants and the allocation of resources "on a case-by-case basis."
"Treasury may invest in any financial instrument, including debt, equity, or warrants, that the secretary of the Treasury determines to be a troubled asset, after consultation with the chairman of the board of governors of the Federal Reserve System and notice to Congress," the department said.
Among the criteria in determining a financial firm's eligibility is "whether the institution is sufficiently important to the nation's financial and economic system that a loss of confidence in the firm's financial position could potentially cause major disruptions to credit markets ... or lead to similar losses of confidence or financial market stability that could materially weaken overall economic performance."
Wednesday, the Treasury Department posted on its website a description of its Automotive Industry Financing Program, justifying after the fact its decision to lend a combined 13.4 billion dollars in TARP funds to embattled automakers General Motors and Chrysler to stave off their imminent collapse.
"The objective of this program is to prevent a significant disruption of the American automotive industry that poses a systemic risk to financial market stability and will have a negative effect on the real economy of the United States," it said.
Similar to its approach to the finance industry, the Treasury said it would determine eligibility of participants in the program on a case-by-case basis.
The Treasury announced on December 19 a massive rescue of cash-strapped GM and Chrysler, facing a threat of imminent bankruptcy that could create economic chaos and throw millions out of work across the country.
Source: Agencies
India gets more room to grow with Stimulus-II package
The government on Friday announced the second and final installment of its fiscal stimulus package. Complementing monetary easing by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the Centre enhanced the spending power of states with specific measures to boost credit availability.
It offered additional sops to exporters and the small-scale sector, besides raising the level of protection for cement and steel sectors a tad. It has also incentivised purchase of commercial vehicles.
Credit availability has been hiked in a variety of ways, the interest ceiling on external commercial borrowings has been removed; the cap on foreign institutional investments in the domestic corporate debt market has been jacked up two-and-a-half times from $6 billion to $15 billion; a special purpose vehicle is being created to lend to non-banking finance
companies to the tune of Rs 25,000 crore; Indian Infrastructure Finance Company is being permitted to raise another Rs 30,000 crore by means of tax-free bonds, and states are allowed to borrow an additional Rs 30,000 crore from the market.
In addition, public sector banks would be given additional capital to the extent of Rs 20,000 crore over the next two years, so they can lend roughly 10 times as much additionally.
The latest measures, which come in less than a month after the first package was unveiled on December 7, are aimed at benefiting housing, NBFCs that lend to infrastructure and finance commercial vehicles.
Announcing the measures, Planning Commission deputy chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia said: “By no measure can we insulate our economy from slower growth, when the external factors are of such enormous magnitude. However, we will be able to manage a 7% growth this fiscal through these measures.”
Mr Singh added that these contra-cyclical steps and fiscal policy “in these truly exceptional circumstances” would ensure that growth momentum would be maintained next fiscal, which, he said, would be tougher than this year. But such counter-cyclical fiscal activism has to pay a price in the form of a higher fiscal deficit.
“Considering the implementation of the Sixth Pay Commission, the consensus within the government was a fiscal deficit of 3%. The mid-term review of the economy said that the fiscal deficit would be over 5%, excluding the below-the-line items such as fertiliser and oil subsidy. If we include these items, the fiscal deficit could exceed by 3% of gross domestic product, what was being targeted,” said Mr Singh.
The budgeted target for the fiscal deficit is 2.5% of GDP. The global financial meltdown has already forced the US and some other major developed countries into recession, and hit India too. This year, the economic growth is expected to be around 7%, down from the 9% average of the past three years.
The first stimulus package, estimated at over Rs 30,000 crore, included a 4% across-the-board cut in excise duty for the remaining part of the financial year and an additional Plan spending of Rs 20,000 crore.
“Because of slowing industrial output and resultant tax receipts, the government will have to forego about Rs 40,000 crore this fiscal. This is a rough estimate in a dynamic situation and improved production because of the steps taken could offset part of it,” said finance secretary Arun Ramanathan.
To facilitate access to funds for the housing sector, companies developing integrated townships have been allowed to borrow overseas with prior approval of RBI. The ceiling on interest rates for all overseas borrowings has been removed to provide flexibility to companies to borrow abroad.
Source: Agencies
It offered additional sops to exporters and the small-scale sector, besides raising the level of protection for cement and steel sectors a tad. It has also incentivised purchase of commercial vehicles.
Credit availability has been hiked in a variety of ways, the interest ceiling on external commercial borrowings has been removed; the cap on foreign institutional investments in the domestic corporate debt market has been jacked up two-and-a-half times from $6 billion to $15 billion; a special purpose vehicle is being created to lend to non-banking finance
companies to the tune of Rs 25,000 crore; Indian Infrastructure Finance Company is being permitted to raise another Rs 30,000 crore by means of tax-free bonds, and states are allowed to borrow an additional Rs 30,000 crore from the market.
In addition, public sector banks would be given additional capital to the extent of Rs 20,000 crore over the next two years, so they can lend roughly 10 times as much additionally.
The latest measures, which come in less than a month after the first package was unveiled on December 7, are aimed at benefiting housing, NBFCs that lend to infrastructure and finance commercial vehicles.
Announcing the measures, Planning Commission deputy chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia said: “By no measure can we insulate our economy from slower growth, when the external factors are of such enormous magnitude. However, we will be able to manage a 7% growth this fiscal through these measures.”
Mr Singh added that these contra-cyclical steps and fiscal policy “in these truly exceptional circumstances” would ensure that growth momentum would be maintained next fiscal, which, he said, would be tougher than this year. But such counter-cyclical fiscal activism has to pay a price in the form of a higher fiscal deficit.
“Considering the implementation of the Sixth Pay Commission, the consensus within the government was a fiscal deficit of 3%. The mid-term review of the economy said that the fiscal deficit would be over 5%, excluding the below-the-line items such as fertiliser and oil subsidy. If we include these items, the fiscal deficit could exceed by 3% of gross domestic product, what was being targeted,” said Mr Singh.
The budgeted target for the fiscal deficit is 2.5% of GDP. The global financial meltdown has already forced the US and some other major developed countries into recession, and hit India too. This year, the economic growth is expected to be around 7%, down from the 9% average of the past three years.
The first stimulus package, estimated at over Rs 30,000 crore, included a 4% across-the-board cut in excise duty for the remaining part of the financial year and an additional Plan spending of Rs 20,000 crore.
“Because of slowing industrial output and resultant tax receipts, the government will have to forego about Rs 40,000 crore this fiscal. This is a rough estimate in a dynamic situation and improved production because of the steps taken could offset part of it,” said finance secretary Arun Ramanathan.
To facilitate access to funds for the housing sector, companies developing integrated townships have been allowed to borrow overseas with prior approval of RBI. The ceiling on interest rates for all overseas borrowings has been removed to provide flexibility to companies to borrow abroad.
Source: Agencies
Citigroup to limit top executives' pay, bonuses
The recipient of a $45 billion infusion from the US government, Citigroup Inc on Wednesday said it would place strict limits on management's compensation, including no severance for its top five executives.
Under pressure from lawmakers, Citigroup Chief Executive Vikram Pandit and Chairman Win Bischoff opted to forego their 2008 bonuses. The company's new executive pay limits also feature a clawback provision in which Citigroup can recoup executive pay ``that over time proves to be based on inaccurate financial or other information.''
The compensation restrictions come as the New York-based bank signed an agreement with the federal government to receive an additional $20 billion on top of the $25 billion it received in October. Restrictions on expenses, including the use of corporate aircraft and costs related to entertainment or holiday parties, also will be put in place.
Part of the $700 billion bailout program authorized by Congress, the capital infusions to Citigroup and dozens of other banks are the government's main tool for attempting to stabilize the financial services sector and spur lending between financial institutions and to customers.
Citi said it will issue $20 billion in preferred shares to the Treasury Department, and warrants to buy about 188.5 million shares of common stock at a strike price of $10.61 a share, according to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
In doing so, members of the company's senior leadership and executive committees will see pay cuts and limits on severance packages, according to a memo sent to Citigroup staff Wednesday.
In the memo, Pandit announced measures that will tie executive pay more closely to performance.
``We are fully committed to paying for high-performance people at all levels of the organization and at competitive rates, in the context of the company's overall financial results,'' Pandit said.
The most senior leaders will be affected the most, Citi said. Pandit said he and Bischoff thought it ``fair'' to forgo their bonuses ``in light of the challenges of the year and the need for compensation elsewhere in the organization,'' the memo said. Robert Rubin, a Citigroup adviser and former Treasury secretary, also will decline a bonus.
Pandit added that senior leadership committee members will see their bonuses ``substantially reduced,'' while executive committee members will have larger proportions of their bonuses in deferred compensation than other employees.
As a condition for receiving government money, lawmakers are making companies reel in bonuses. The congressional backlash and public outrage followed a series of high-profile cases involving Wall Street executives walking away with millions of dollars after their firms received taxpayer money.
Last month, American International Group Inc. said it would be limiting how much it pays its top executives, including granting a $1 salary for 2008 and 2009 to its CEO Edward Liddy.
New York-based AIG has received a roughly $150 billion rescue package from the federal government.
Shares of Citi fell 9 cents to $6.71 Wednesday. The company's stock shed more than three-fourths of its value in 2008.
Source: Agencies
Under pressure from lawmakers, Citigroup Chief Executive Vikram Pandit and Chairman Win Bischoff opted to forego their 2008 bonuses. The company's new executive pay limits also feature a clawback provision in which Citigroup can recoup executive pay ``that over time proves to be based on inaccurate financial or other information.''
The compensation restrictions come as the New York-based bank signed an agreement with the federal government to receive an additional $20 billion on top of the $25 billion it received in October. Restrictions on expenses, including the use of corporate aircraft and costs related to entertainment or holiday parties, also will be put in place.
Part of the $700 billion bailout program authorized by Congress, the capital infusions to Citigroup and dozens of other banks are the government's main tool for attempting to stabilize the financial services sector and spur lending between financial institutions and to customers.
Citi said it will issue $20 billion in preferred shares to the Treasury Department, and warrants to buy about 188.5 million shares of common stock at a strike price of $10.61 a share, according to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
In doing so, members of the company's senior leadership and executive committees will see pay cuts and limits on severance packages, according to a memo sent to Citigroup staff Wednesday.
In the memo, Pandit announced measures that will tie executive pay more closely to performance.
``We are fully committed to paying for high-performance people at all levels of the organization and at competitive rates, in the context of the company's overall financial results,'' Pandit said.
The most senior leaders will be affected the most, Citi said. Pandit said he and Bischoff thought it ``fair'' to forgo their bonuses ``in light of the challenges of the year and the need for compensation elsewhere in the organization,'' the memo said. Robert Rubin, a Citigroup adviser and former Treasury secretary, also will decline a bonus.
Pandit added that senior leadership committee members will see their bonuses ``substantially reduced,'' while executive committee members will have larger proportions of their bonuses in deferred compensation than other employees.
As a condition for receiving government money, lawmakers are making companies reel in bonuses. The congressional backlash and public outrage followed a series of high-profile cases involving Wall Street executives walking away with millions of dollars after their firms received taxpayer money.
Last month, American International Group Inc. said it would be limiting how much it pays its top executives, including granting a $1 salary for 2008 and 2009 to its CEO Edward Liddy.
New York-based AIG has received a roughly $150 billion rescue package from the federal government.
Shares of Citi fell 9 cents to $6.71 Wednesday. The company's stock shed more than three-fourths of its value in 2008.
Source: Agencies
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