Digital transformation will continue to drive IP traffic in India with
the projected increase in Internet users from 373 million in 2016 to 829
million or 59 percent of the Indian population in 2021.
In addition, there will be 2.0 billion networked devices in 2021, up from 1.4
billion in 2016 and the overall IP traffic is expected to grow 4-fold from 2016
to 2021, a compound annual growth rate of 30% and reach 6.5 Exabytes of data per
month in 2021, up from 1.7 Exabytes per month in 2016, according to today’s
release of the Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Complete Forecast.
According to the report, M2M connections will represent 22 percent of
the total 2 billion devices and connections and will account for five percent
of IP traffic by 2021. Advancements in IoT
applications
such as smart meters, package tracking, digital health monitors and a host of other
next-generation M2M services is driving this incremental growth—nearly 21
percent increase in the next five years.
Video will continue to dominate IP traffic and overall Internet traffic growth—representing
76 percent of all Internet traffic in 2021, up from 57 percent in 2016. India
will reach 84 billion Internet video minutes per month by 2021, which is one
hundred and sixty thousand years of video per month, or about thirty two
thousand video minutes every second.
“Mobile networks, devices and connections in
India are not only getting smarter in their computing capabilities but are also
evolving from lower-generation network connectivity (2G) to higher-generation
network connectivity (3G, 3.5G, and 4G or LTE). Combining device capabilities
with faster, higher bandwidth and more intelligent networks is leading to wide
adoption of high bandwidth data, video and advanced multimedia applications
that contribute to increased mobile and Wi-Fi traffic” said Sanjay Kaul, Managing Director, Service Provider Business,
Cisco India and SAARC.
He added “We are witnessing
a burgeoning rise in usage of mobile applications and connectivity by end
users. The need for optimized bandwidth
management, network automation, e2e security and ultimately network
monetization through cost efficient data production is fuelling the growth of
network automation, mass market 4G deployments and adoption, soon to be
followed with 4.5G and 5G. Service providers around the world are busy
architecting their networks to be more autonomous and capable of handling high
bandwidth to help them meet the growing end-users demand for more bandwidth,
higher security, and faster connectivity on the move. Many providers have also
started field trials for 5G and are gearing towards rolling out 5G deployments
towards the end of the VNI forecast period.”
India Internet Growth and
Trends:
1.
Increase in Internet Users, devices and connection
·
In India, there will be 829 million total Internet users (59% of
population) in 2021, up from 373 million (28% of population) in 2016
·
In India, there will be 2.0 billion networked devices in 2021, up from
1.4 billion in 2016
2.
Increase in IP Traffic and
Internet Traffic
·
In India, Consumer Internet video traffic will reach 3.0 Exabytes per
month in 2021, the equivalent of 756 million DVDs per month, or 1 million DVDs
per hour
·
In India, Consumer Internet video traffic was 535 Petabytes per month in
2016, the equivalent of 134 million DVDs per month, or 183,261 DVDs per hour
·
In India, Internet video traffic will be 77% of all consumer Internet
traffic in 2021, up from 58% in 2016
·
In India, Internet traffic will grow 4.0-fold from 2016 to 2021, a
compound annual growth rate of 32%
·
In 2021, the gigabyte equivalent of all movies ever made will cross the
Internet every 54 minutes
·
Indian Internet traffic in 2021 will be equivalent to 291x the volume of
the entire Indian Internet in 2005
3.
Increase in Per capita
Usage
·
In India, IP traffic will reach 5 Gigabytes per capita in 2021, up from 1
Gigabytes in 2016
4.
Internet users & Faster
Broadband Speed
·
In India, there will be 829 million total Internet users (59% of
population) in 2021, up from 373 million (28% of population) in 2016
·
In India, the average fixed broadband speed will grow 2.8-fold from 2016
to 2021, from 6.6 Mbps to 18.2 Mbps
5.
Increase in Mobile,
Internet Video
·
In India, mobile data traffic will grow 7-fold from 2016 to 2021, a
compound annual growth rate of 49%
·
In India, mobile data traffic in 2021 will be equivalent to 88x the
volume of the entire Indian Internet in 2005
·
In India, IP video will be 83% of all IP traffic in 2021, up from 69% in
2016
·
In India, Internet video traffic will grow 5-fold from 2016 to 2021, a
compound annual growth rate of 40%
·
In India, total Internet video
traffic (business and consumer, combined) will be 76% of all Internet traffic
in 2021, up from 57% in 2016
·
In India, HD will be 51.4% of
Internet video traffic in 2021, up from 12.0% in 2016 (87.9% CAGR)
·
In India, 84 billion minutes
(159,201 years) of video content will cross the Internet each month in 2021.
That's 31,840 minutes of video streamed or downloaded every second
·
In India, Internet video traffic will grow 5-fold from 2016 to 2021, a
compound annual growth rate of 40%
6.
Increase in Networked
Devices
·
In India, there will be 2.0 billion networked devices in 2021, from 1.4
billion networked devices in 2016, and 1.3
billion in 2015
·
In India, 67% of all networked
devices will be mobile-connected in 2021
7.
Growth in Internet
video & gaming traffic
·
In India, Internet video traffic will be 77% of all consumer Internet
traffic in 2021, up from 58% in 2016
·
In India, gaming traffic will grow 7-fold from 2016 to 2021, a compound
annual growth rate of 49%
Key Findings &
Milestones from Global Traffic Projections and Service Adoption Trends
1.
Strong Growth in IP
& Internet Traffic
·
Global
IP traffic is expected to reach 278 exabytes per month by 2021, up from 96
exabytes per month in 2016. Global IP traffic is expected to reach an annual
run rate of 3.3 zettabytes by 2021.
·
Busy
hour Internet traffic is increasing faster than average Internet traffic. Busy
hour Internet traffic will grow 4.6-fold (35% CAGR) from 2016 to 2021, reaching
4.3 Pbps by 2021, compared to average Internet traffic that will grow 3.2-fold
(26% CAGR) over the same period reaching 717 Tbps by 2021.
·
Content
delivery networks (CDNs), will carry 71 percent of all Internet video traffic
by 2021 (up from 52 percent in 2016).
2. Average DDoS
(Distributed
Denial of Service) attacks size increasing
steadily and approaching 1.2 Gpbs— enough to take most organizations completely offline
·
DDoS incidents can paralyze networks by flooding servers and
network devices with traffic from multiple IP sources.
·
The peak attack size increased 60% Y/Y and
represents up to 18 percent of a country’s total Internet traffic while they
are occurring.
·
Average DDoS attack size increased to 22
percent which is relatively the same rate as Internet traffic at 29 percent
Y/Y.
·
The DDoS attacks grew 172% in 2016 and will
increase 2.5-fold to 3.1 million by 2021 globally.
3. Globally, total public W-Fi hotspots (including homespots)
will grow 6-fold from 2016 to 2021 from 94 million in 2016 to 541.6 million by
2021.
·
Globally,
total Wi-Fi homespots will grow from 85 million in 2016 to 526.2 million by
2021.
·
Globally
there were 91 percent of public Wi-Fi hotspots in 2016 and by 2021 it is
projected to reach 97 percent.
·
Leading
hotspot countries: China (170M by 2021), US (86M by 2021), Japan (33M by 2021),
and France (30M by 2021).
4. By 2021, more than half (56 percent) of connected flat
panel TV sets will be 4K up from 15% in 2016
·
Installed/In-service
4K TV sets will increase from 85M in 2016 to 663M by 2021.
5. Cord-Cutting household traffic is 86 percent higher
·
A
global cord-cutting household generates 117 GB per month in 2017, compared to
63 GB per month for an average household.
6. Global Enterprise SD-WAN Traffic
·
SD-WAN
traffic will grow at a CAGR of 44% compared to 5% for traditional WAN SD-WAN will
increase 6x and will be 25% of WAN traffic by 2021
·
End-User
Internet traffic is moving closer to the Edge. Nearly half of traffic will
bypass core completely by 2021.
Regional
IP Traffic Growth Details
·
APAC:
107.7 exabytes/month by 2021, 26% CAGR, 3.2-fold growth
·
North
America: 85 exabytes/month by 2021, 20% CAGR, 2.5-fold growth
·
Western
Europe: 37.4 exabytes/month 2021, 22% CAGR, 2.7-fold growth
·
Central
Europe: 17.1 exabytes/month by 2021, 22% CAGR, 2.75-fold growth
·
Latin
America: 12.9 exabytes/month by 2021, 21% CAGR, 2.6-fold growth
·
Middle
East and Africa: 15.5 exabytes/month by 2021, 42% CAGR, 5.8-fold growth
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