* November 2022 clocked highest sales in the history of Indian Automobile Industry with March’20 as an exception when retails were higher due to BS-4 to BS-6 transition.
* On YoY basis, total vehicle retail for the month of November’22 saw a growth of 26%. All the categories closed in green. 2W, 3W, PV, Trac and CV were up by 24%, 80%, 21%, 57% and 33% respectively.
* When compared with November’19, a pre-covid month, total vehicle retail closed in marginal positive territory with an increase of 1.5%. Except 2W, which saw a marginal dip of -0.9%, all the other categories were in green with 3W, PV, Trac and CV growing by 4%, 5%, 61% and 6% respectively.
* Carrying forward from high festive sales, the Great Indian Wedding Season which continues from 14 November to 14 December played its part in increased Auto Retail.
Healthy Auto Retails is also supported by RBIs Consumer Confidence Data which remains to be on recovery path on account of better perceptions on general economic situation, employment, and household income.
* RBI’s continued rate hike and China Lockdown may play spoilsport in near term.
The Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (FADA) today released Vehicle Retail Data for November’22.
Commenting on how November’22 performed, FADA President, Mr. Manish Raj Singhania said, “November 2022 has clocked highest retails in the history of Indian Automobile Industry with March’20 as an exception when retails were higher due to BS-4 to BS-6 transition.
Auto Retail in November’22 saw an overall growth of 26%. The baton was passed by the positive run of festive sales to the Great Indian Wedding Season (from 14th November to 14th December) where around 32 lakh weddings will be solemnised across the country. All categories were in green with 2W, 3W, PV, Tractor and CV growing by 24%, 80%, 21%, 57% and 33% respectively.
Even when compared to pre-covid month of 2019, overall retails for the second consecutive month closed in green by growing 1.5%. Except 2W, which saw a marginal dip of -0.9%, all the other categories like 3W, PV, Trac and CV grew by 4%, 5%, 61% and 6% respectively.
The 2W segment showed a huge growth of 24% YoY but fell marginally by 0.9%, when compared to Nov’19, a pre-covid year. This segment is slowly turning the tides from negative to positive as the same can be witnessed from retail sales due to the ongoing wedding season.
The 3W segment showed a massive growth of 80% YoY and 4% when compared to 2019, a pre-covid year. The category which was witnessing low demand during covid has now emerged as the highest growing category due to positive sentiments and fear of lockdowns out of mind. Also, electrification in the category continues at its highest pace.
The PV segment showed a growth of 21% YoY and 5% when compared to 2019. Better availability of model mixes from past months, new launches and increase in rural demand continues to keep the segment in healthy condition. Compact SUV and SUV category coupled with higher variant models continues to rule to roost.
The CV witnessed a growth of 33% YoY and 6% compared to 2019. With Government’s continued focus in the infrastructure space and new mining projects, replacement demand continued to pour in along with healthy inter-state passenger movement enabling bus sales.”
Near Term Outlook
The RBI’s latest Consumer Confidence Data suggests that buoyancy among customers is on a recovery path on account of better perceptions on general economic situation, employment, and household income. This along with the ongoing festive season has continued to help in bringing customers to the showrooms as on date.
For Bharat, normally after the harvest starts, farmers get money in hand and this starts the spending cycle. We expect spending for Auto Sales to go up once the harvest comes into the market and farmers start getting money in their hands.
Most of the OEMs are announcing price hikes going forward. To counter this and for the lower end of the pyramid, OEMs have started announcing discounts for slow moving products, lower variants and to clear their year-end stocks. This may help year-end sales to remain healthy.
While the above actions are positive, RBI has yesterday increased the repo-rate by 35 bps (225 bps increase since May’22) and continues to hint at more hikes in future. This increase now brings repo rate to 6.25%, the highest since Feb’19. This will further lead to a higher cost of borrowing apart from the price hikes done by OEMs and may dent the consumer confidence specially in 2W and entry level PV segment. Along with this, the China lockdown may play its part in slowing the supply of semi-conductors. If this happens, it may act as a speed-breaker and add to supply-demand mis-match which was improving since last few months.
Due to the above reasons, FADA remains cautiously optimistic in the near term.
Key Findings from our Online Members Survey
Inventory at the end of November’22
Average inventory for Passenger Vehicles ranges from 35 – 40 days
Average inventory for Two – Wheelers ranges from 30 – 35 days