Indian economy’s roller-coaster ride during the year gone by was best captured by the GDP growth. In the first quarter of 2018-19 ending June 30, it grew at an impressive 8.2%, after 7.7% in the first three months of the year.
Then it slipped to 7.1% in the next quarter ending September 30. Fitch Ratings slashed India’s GDP growth forecast to 7.2% for the current fiscal, from 7.8% projected in September, citing higher financing cost and reduced credit availability.
According to Niti Aayog Vice-Chairman Rajiv Kumar, the focus of the government in 2019 will be to expedite reforms with a view to accelerate growth.
“India will grow at around 7.8 per cent in the next calendar year and investment cycle that has already started picking-up will gather further strength and we will see more private investments,” Kumar said.
Experts, however, expect that moderating growth can force the government to spend more before the next general elections and that could lead to fiscal pressures.
Global factors such as sudden zoom in crude prices (which are now easing), strengthening US dollar, slowing growth in the wake of US-China trade war and the US Federal Reserve hiking interest rate for the fourth time in a year did take the toll on India’s economy.
The banking sector ruled the headlines in 2018. The year opened with India’s biggest banking scam coming to light. On February 14, state-owned Punjab National Bank said it had detected a Rs 11,400 crore scam where billionaire-jeweller Nirav Modi allegedly acquired fraudulent letters of undertaking from a branch in Mumbai to secure overseas credit from other Indian lenders.