FAITH Revises Indian Tourism Value at Risk Guidance to ₹ 15 Lakh Cr

‘Now or Never’ Point 

* Worst period ever for tourism in 100 years. 

* Till a vaccine is found, concept of tourism will be in dire threat

* Tourism COVID Support Fund needed

* RBI must give a multi-year moratorium on principal & interest to tourism.  

* Stop the clock on all central & state Government for statutory payments

* 75% value or minimum 9 months of the almost 10% of India’s GDP from Tourism at risk from collapse 

* Generations of tourism businesses and crores of jobs getting impacted

Federation of Associations in Indian Tourism & Hospitality,the policy federation of all the national associations representing the complete tourism, travel and hospitality industry of India (ADTOI, ATOAI, FHRAI, HAI, IATO, ICPB, IHHA, ITTA, TAAI, TAFI) & cause partner AIRDA has further revised upwards it’s value at risk to Indian tourism to ₹ 15 lakh crores. 

FAITH’s first guidance which was calculated and was shared with the Government in March 2020 had put tourism’s economic value at risk at ₹ 5 lakh crores from this pandemic.  FAITH revised this further during the quarter as the situation deteriorated and the value at risk was put at ₹ 10 lakh crores. This has been revised again to touch a value at risk of upto ₹ 15 lakh crores in terms of the economic output of tourism in India 

Given the way the virus is progressing, tourism supply chains have  broken down in India across all its key inbound, domestic & outbound markets and is not expected to recover for the next  5 months too making the total impact to a minimum of 9 months starting from March this year. 

The direct and indirect economic impact of Tourism industry in India is approximately estimated at ~ 10% of India’s GDP.  This roughly puts the full year economic multiplier value of tourism in India at ~ ₹ 20 lakh crores. Minimum three quarters of tourism will be fully impacted 

This value covers the whole tourism value chain from airlines, travel agents, hotels, tour operators, tourism destinations restaurants, tourist transportation, tourist guides. Each of these segments of tourism is non - performing or under performing and will stay that way for many months of this year.

This is evident across all segments of tourism. Pending refunds for travel agents,  shut down or vacant  hotels & restaurants,  empty or locked down conventions and meeting or wedding halls, no order pipelines for tour operators, tourist transport lying locked in parking lots, laid off or leave without pay staff , managers, the summer domestic and outbound holiday season gone,  no visible bookings for the peak October - March season, meetings shifted to virtual apps , non - essential travel closed and so on. 

Be it leisure ( inbound, outbound, domestic) corporate travel, heritage, adventure, meetings incentives, exhibitions & events religious, spiritual and in upcoming high value niche tourism products such as sea & river cruises, camping, rafting, golf  film tourism, jungle tourism, agri tourism and many more across all states, this will the worst performing year for tourism in a century. 

Tourism has one of the largest economic multipliers and FAITH based upon its industry estimates believes that each rupee spent on tourism could have an economic multiplier of upwards of  3- 4 times more for India given its most globally unique natural and cultural heritage spread across the Indian hinterlands. The cumulative job losses for the full year both in organised & unorganised category of tourism could go as high as 4 crores. 

FAITH has been requesting over the past 5 months that for revival of any demand in tourism, it is first important that the survival of tourism businesses in India has to first remain intact. 

Tourism sector requires a very customised sector specific relief package and it cannot be delayed any further,  FAITH spokesperson said.

The following are immediately critical to maintaining the survival of tourism businesses 

* A Tourism fund which can be used by tourism enterprises in India for taking care of their employees. 

* A multi-year moratorium by RBI on principal and interest payments by tourism, travel & hospitalty businesses. 

* An immediate full year waiver of all central and state statutory liabilities be it PF , ESi, income taxes, GST , fixed power and utilities tariffs, property , excise , inter-state tourist transportation taxes and license fees, all without any accumulated or penal interest has to be done immediately. 

* Robust booking payments refund mechanism for travel agents & tour operators from airlines, railways, state tourism parks and other suppliers. 

Only this will keep the Indian tourism track and hospitality industry alive for a revival, it will keep the jobs intact and it will protect the exposure of the banking sector to tourism preventing their loans from becoming NPAs. 

Post the Unlock tourism is seeing some spur, but that too very limited, very  short -  haul  domestic travel and not enough to make any tourism business viable. 

FAITH has already raised requests over the past five months to the Prime Minister, the Finance Minister, to each of the 28 chief ministers , to the RBI, Niti Aayog, to tourism parliamentary panel, ministries of aviation, commerce, Finance and to more than 600 parliamentarians and is closely in coordination with ministry of tourism.  

It has also requested the Parliamentarians to raise the question as to ‘why not tourism’ for sector specific support when tourism industry contributes to pan India jobs across urban & rural, forex , robust IT & GST collections, capex driven GDP & so on. 

Tourism is a very unique business and is a discretionary activity.  Tourism is a means of unwinding, letting oneself immerse in local experiences. With each aspect of the travel journey now under the threat of virus from contact, this puts tourism at risk. Till the time there is a vaccine found, the very concept of tourism will be in question.  

This will be reflected in all data points of the Government whether in GST collections, banking data, PF, ESI or state level fixed charges. 

Tourism cannot be treated economically like any other business and needs NOW a Fiscal & Monetary structured package coordinated among all arms of Governments. 

The whole value chain of Indian tourism will be under threat - which catered to almost 10.8 million incoming foreign travellers , almost 1.8 billion Indian domestic tourism visits, almost 5 mn- + expats Indians visiting back,  almost 28 mn + outbound travelling Indians & almost $ 29 bn + forex earnings.

Would Air India need government bail out package to pay salaries?

For the first time since the losses hit the national carrier Air India, the payment of salaries for the current month of about 30,000 employees will be delayed by a fortnight.

Confirming this, an Air India spokesperson said, "The salaries of June will be paid on July 15 due to the resource crunch that the company is facing."

The payment of productivity-linked incentive (PLI) has also been delayed by 15 days, according to a circular issued by Air India management.

Air India's losses for the last financial year are estimated at around Rs 4,000 crore, up from Rs 2,226 crore in the previous fiscal.

Reports say the national carrier was planning to seek Rs 5,000 crore as additional equity, Rs 7,000 crore as a soft loan payable after five years at a five per cent interest rate, and a grant of Rs 2,000 crore.

However, top Air India officials have denied the figures, but said they are working on similar lines.

Maintaining that the financial crisis was foreseen last year, industry sources said the acute situation could have been avoided had Air India delayed the ongoing deliveries of aircraft, like its competitors Jet Airways and Kingfisher Airlines did.

They said there is no capacity since air traffic had gone down substantially due to the financial meltdown, and so the induction of additional aircraft could have waited.

Air India has placed orders for 111 new planes worth over Rs 45,000 crore and it currently has a paid-up capital of Rs 145 crore and authorized capital of Rs 1,500 crore package would not match Air India's expectations.

Agencies

Will the Rs 2000 crore government package bailout out Satyam?

Speculation is rife that the government is considering a package of up to Rs 2,000 crore to bailout the crisis-ridden Satyam Computer but no confirmation could be obtained.

Shortly after the Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's review meeting on Satyam on Tuesday, there was media speculation that government would be considering a financial assistance ranging between Rs 500 crore and Rs 2,000 crore but the PMO office declined to comment on it.

"We have nothing to say on this," a top PMO official said when asked about if the government was considering giving financial aid to Satyam which is confronting a cash crisis.

Meanwhile, official sources indicated that the government appointed Satyam board has written a letter to the finance ministry raising concerns about the liquidity crunch in the troubled company.

Talking to reporters after the first meeting of the new board in Hyderabad, HDFC chairman Deepak Parekh, who is member of the board, had said "working capital issues require immediate attention and we will work with the team to tide over this situation.

Satyam has 53,000 employees and needs over Rs 500 crore a month to meet the staff cost.

Commerce Minister Kamal Nath, who attended PM's review meeting, had said yesterday that the government was open to consider a financial package for Satyam.

Agencies

Will US debt increase by $2 trillion in 2009?

The US national debt is expected to jump by as much as $2 trillion this year, thus putting more pressure on the American economy, a leading daily here said.

At present, the country's debt stands at nearly $10.7 trillion. Of this $3 trillion is held by foreign investors , with China ($652.9 billion) and Japan ($585.5 billion) being the top two creditors.

The soaring national debt would saddle taxpayers with huge new interest payments for years to come, the Washington Post said.

"Some analysts also worry that foreign investors, the largest United States creditors, may prove unable to absorb the skyrocketing debt, undermining confidence in the US as the bedrock of the global financial system," the Post wrote.

The newspaper said economists from across the political spectrum have endorsed the idea of going deeper into debt to combat the worst ever economic crisis since great depression of last century.

They argue that even with an increase of $2 trillion national debt, the United States is in relatively good financial shape as compared to other industrial nations.

Japan's public debt equalled 182% of its GDP in 2007 and that of Germany was 65%, the newspaper said referring to a forthcoming report by Scott Lilly, a senior fellow at the Centre for American Progress.
Even a $2 trillion increase would push the US debt to about 53 of the overall economy. This is "only a few percentage points above where it was in the early 1990s," Lilly was quoted as saying by the newspaper.

Source: Agencies

GM cuts financing costs; GMAC expands lending

General Motors Corp and its financing affiliate GMAC on Tuesday announced programs to make it easier for car and truck buyers to get financing, a day after GMAC agreed to sell the government a $5 billion stake.

Through Jan. 5, GM will offer interest rates of zero percent to 4.9 percent on loans of up to five years on various 2008 model year vehicles, and 3.9 percent to 5.9 percent on some 2009 vehicles. Many of the vehicles also carry cash discounts of $500 to $4,250.

The move is a bid to capitalize on GMAC's separate plan to provide auto financing to more U.S. consumers. GMAC will extend loans to retail buyers with credit scores of 621 or higher. In October it had restricted loans to borrowers with scores of 700 or higher.

Many analysts consider borrowers with credit scores of 620 or lower to be "subprime." Dealer wholesale financing is unchanged, GMAC said.

GMAC is owned by GM and private equity firm Cerberus Capital Management LP [CBS.UL].

The changes may help bolster sales at GM, the nation's largest automaker, following a 41 percent plunge in November.

GMAC has traditionally provided the bulk of financing for GM's retail customers and the floorplan financing that dealers rely on to carry car and truck inventory.

Mark LaNeve, GM's sales and marketing chief, said the lower financing costs will encourage customers to "get back into the game."

Source: Agencies

Despite meltdown: No job loses in BPO sector!

Software and BPO industry body Nasscom on Wednesday said the business process outsourcing sector is not in the danger of losing jobs due to the ongoing economic downturn rather a net hirer in the current fiscal.

In a statement here Nasscom said, "Media reports suggest that the Indian BPO industry will see 2.5 lakh job losses by the first quarter of 2009, in the wake of downturn in the US and other developed economies. Nasscom’s research and interaction with its member companies is not in support of this statement. Our detailed industry performance and forecast for FY09 will be released in the next fortnight. However, on employment the industry will continue to be a net hirer in FY09 as a direct corollary of industry growth and fears of large scale job losses at an industry level are unfounded."

The industry body's comment comes in the wake BPO Industry Association President Samir Chopra stating that "severe job loss is expected because of recession. We are going to request for a fiscal package from the Government but if that doesn't happen, then there be huge amount of losses in terms of manpower. I think a quarter of a million jobs will go."

The $11-billion BPO sector employs about seven lakh people.

Source: Agencies

Rs 300,000cr package to boost Indian economy

The government on Sunday announced major tax cuts across the board to boost demand and allocated additional funds and incentives for exports, housing, textile and infrastructure to stimulate the economy, hit by the global financial crisis.

"The government has been concerned about the impact of global financial crisis on the Indian economy
and a number of steps have been taken to deal with this problem," an official statement said.

The package, coming on the back of fresh monetary measures announced by the RBI on Saturday, includes a four per cent cut in ad-valoram duty across the board, to boost additional spending, besides enhanced credit for exporters, along with a Rs 10,000 crore mop up for India Infrastructure Finance Company.

The measures include additional plan expenditure up to Rs 20,000 crore in current year; total spending in four months till March expected at Rs 300,000 crore. A series of steps to boost exports; Rs 350 crore additional funds for export incentives; back-up guarantee to ECGC for up to Rs 350 crore; to be allowed refund of services in some areas.

The package also includes import duty on Naptha for use in power sector as well as export duty on iron ore to be eliminated. India Infrastructure Finance Company to raise Rs 10,000 crore through tax-free bonds by March 2009. PSU banks to soon announce package for borrowers of home loans upto Rs 20 lakh. An across-the-board cut on ad valorem rate to encourage additional spending; additional Rs 1,400 crore for textile sector.

Source: Agencies

$1.5 trillion package for China's economy

Projects planned by provincial governments will add an additional 10 trillion yuan ($1.464 trillion) to the value of China's economic stimulus package, state television said on Sunday, even as the country's premier called on businesses to keep up their confidence.

The central government earlier this month announced a 4 trillion yuan stimulus package, including rail and infrastructure projects as well as increased social spending, as China strives to offset a sharp drop in demand for the exports which fuel its economy.

The People's Bank of China will need to pay more attention to the structural adjustment of the economy, as it combats the impact of the global financial crisis, governor Zhou Xiaochuan said in remarks published on the central bank's website Sunday.

He called for "more understanding of the financial requirements of the restructuring" and reiterated that small and medium enterprises, the service sector, energy-efficient projects and rural projects were priorities for financial support.

Despite strong talk of boosting China's domestic consumption, details of specific new projects and areas of spending are only slowly emerging.

Source: Agencies