By 2021, more members
of the global population will be using mobile phones (5.5 billion) than bank accounts
(5.4 billion), running water (5.3 billion), or landlines (2.9 billion),
according to the 11th annual Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast
(2016 to 2021). Strong growth in mobile users, smartphones and
Internet of Things (IoT) connections as well as network speed improvements and
mobile video consumption are projected to increase mobile data traffic
seven-fold over the next five years.
By 2021, Cisco
projects mobile data traffic will achieve the following milestones:
· Mobile data traffic to represent 20 percent of
total IP traffic—up from just 8
percent of total IP traffic in 2016
· 1.5 mobile devices per capita. Nearly 12 billion mobile-connected
devices (up from 8 billion and 1.1 per capita in 2016), including M2M
modules
· Mobile network connection speeds will increase
three-fold from 6.8 Mbps in 2016 to 20.4 Mbps by 2021
· Machine-to-machine (M2M) connections will
represent 29 percent (3.3 billion) of total mobile connections—up from 5 percent (780 million) in 2016. M2M
will be the fastest growing mobile connection type as global IoT applications
continue to gain traction in consumer and business environments
· 4G will support 58 percent of total mobile
connections by 2021—up from 26 percent in
2016, and will account for 79 percent of total mobile data traffic
· The total number of smartphones (including
phablets) will be over 50 percent of global devices and connections (6.2 billion)—up from 3.6
billion in 2016
The explosion of mobile applications and
adoption of mobile connectivity by end users is fueling the growth of 4G, soon
to be followed by 5G growth. Cisco and other industry experts anticipate
large-scale deployments of 5G infrastructures to begin by 2020. Mobile carriers
will need the innovative speed, low latency, and dynamic provisioning
capabilities that 5G networks are expected to deliver not just increasing
subscriber demands, but also new services trends across mobile, residential,
and business markets. Cisco forecasts that 5G will account for 1.5 percent of
total mobile data traffic by 2021, and will generate 4.7 times more traffic
than the average 4G connection and 10.7 times more traffic than the average 3G
connection.
“With the proliferation of IoT, live mobile
video, augmented and virtual reality applications, and more innovative
experiences for consumer and business users alike, 5G technology will have
significant relevance not just for mobility but rather for networking as a
whole,” said Doug Webster, Vice
President of Service Provider Marketing at Cisco. “As a result, broader and
more extensive architectural transformations involving programmability and
automation will also be needed to support the capabilities 5G enables, and to
address not just today’s demands but also the extensive possibilities on the horizon.”
Sanjay Kaul, Managing
Director, Service Provider Business, Cisco India and SAARC -
“As India leaps
towards a digital economy, 2016 alone saw a huge growth in mobile traffic – by
76% from last year and, by 2021 consumer mobile traffic will grow 7.4-fold at a
CAGR of 49% y-o-y. Much of this growth will be fueled by massive consumer
adoption of smartphones, IoT, smart devices and use of machine-to-machine
connections with an estimated 1,380 million mobile-connected devices by 2021.
As the Internet of Everything gains momentum, we are clearly headed towards a
new era in Internet communications, with M2M connections predicted to increase
17-fold at a CAGR of 76% y-o-y. The way we use connectivity in devices today
will change businesses, government, healthcare, agriculture, manufacturing,
retail, transportation and other key industries.”
Key India Findings:
· In India, mobile data
traffic grew 2.2 times faster than Indian fixed IP traffic in 2016
o In India, the average
mobile-connected end-user device generated 251 megabytes of mobile data traffic
per month in 2016, up 67% from 151 megabytes per month in 2015
o In India, the average
smartphone generated 559 megabytes of mobile data traffic per month in 2016, up
from 430 megabytes per month in 2015
o In India, the average PC
generated 2,166 megabytes of mobile data traffic per month in 2016, up from
1,665 megabytes per month in 2015
o In India, the average
tablet generated 2,228 megabytes of mobile data traffic per month in 2016, up
from 1,671 megabytes per month in 2015
· In India, mobile data
traffic will grow 7-fold from 2016 to 2021, a compound annual growth rate of
49%.
o In India, mobile data
traffic will grow 2 times faster than fixed IP traffic from 2016 to 2021
o In India, mobile data
traffic will account for 29% of Indian fixed and mobile data traffic by 2021,
up from 15% in 2016
o In India, 60% of mobile
connections will be 'smart' connections by 2021, up from 19% in 2016
o In India, 93% of mobile
data traffic will be 'smart' traffic by 2021, up from 62% in 2016
· In 2016, India's
consumer mobile data traffic grew 1.8-fold, or 76%
o In India, consumer
mobile traffic will grow 7.4-fold from 2016 to 2021, a compound annual growth
rate of 49%
o Consumer will account
for 90% of India's mobile data traffic by 2021, compared to 89% at the end of
2016
· In India, business
mobile traffic will grow 7.1-fold from 2016 to 2021, a compound annual growth
rate of 48%
o Business will account
for 10% of India's mobile data traffic by 2021, compared to 11% at the end of
2016
· In India, mobile video
traffic will grow 11.5-fold from 2016 to 2021, a compound annual growth rate of
63%.
o In India, the number
of video capable devices and connections will grow 2.2-fold between 2016 and
2021, reaching 814 million in number
o Video will be 75% of
India's mobile data traffic by 2021, compared to 49% at the end of 2016.
o Video reached half of
India's mobile data traffic by year-end 2017
· In India, cloud
applications will account for 91% of total mobile data traffic by 2021,
compared to 80% at the end of 2016
o In India, mobile cloud traffic will grow 8.4-fold from 2016 to
2021, a compound annual growth rate of 53%.
· In India, 59.6 million
net new devices and connections were added to the mobile network in 2016.
o In India, there will
be 1,380 million mobile-connected devices by 2021, approximately 1.0 per capita
for this region/country
o In India, 4G
connections will grow 5-fold from 2016 to 2021, a compound annual growth rate
of 38%
o India's 3G connections
surpass 2G connections by 2019
o In India, 2G
connections will be 19.1% of total mobile connections by 2021, compared to
75.5% in 2016
o In India, the number
of smart devices will grow 4.2-fold between 2016 and 2021, reaching 823 million
in number
o In India, smart
devices will be 59.6% of total mobile connections by 2021, compared to 18.5% in
2016
o In India, the number
of smartphones will grow 2.2-fold between 2016 and 2021, reaching 781 million
in number
· In India, the number
of wearable devices will reach 6.8 million in number by 2021, up from 2.5
million in 2016, a compound annual growth rate of 23%
o In India, the number of
wearable devices with embedded cellular connections will reach 0.8 million in
number by 2021, up from 0.1 million in 2016, a compound annual growth rate of
45%
· In India, M2M traffic
will grow 17-fold from 2016 to 2021, a compound annual growth rate of 76%
o In India, M2M traffic
will reach 44.7 Petabytes per month by 2021
o In India, M2M will
account for 2% of total mobile data traffic by 2021, compared to 1% at the end
of 2016
o In India, the number of
mobile-connected M2M modules will grow 6.2-fold between 2016 and 2021, reaching
91 million in number
Key Findings &
Milestones from Global Traffic Projections and Forecasted Trends:
1. Rise in global mobile data center traffic
· By 2021, global mobile data traffic will reach
49 exabytes per month, or 587 exabytes annually
· The forecast annual run rate of 587 exabytes
of mobile data traffic for 2021 is equivalent to:
· 122 times more than all global mobile traffic
generated just 10 years ago (in 2011)
· 131 trillion images (e.g. MMS)
2. High growth
for live video on mobile
· Mobile video will increase 8.7-fold from 2016
to 2021 and will have the highest growth rate of any mobile application
category. Mobile video will represent 78 percent of all mobile traffic by 2021
· Live mobile video will grow 39-fold from 2016
to 2021. Live mobile video will represent 5 percent of total mobile video
traffic by 2021
3. Growth in Virtual
Reality (VR) and Augmented Reality (AR)
· VR immerses users in a simulated environment.
AR is an overlay of technology on the real world
· Applications such as VR are adding to the
adoption of wearables such as headsets
· VR headsets will grow from 18 million in 2016
to nearly 100 million by 2021— a five-fold growth
· Globally, VR traffic will grow 11-fold from
13.3 petabytes/month in 2016,
to 140 petabytes/ month in 2021
· Globally, AR traffic will grow seven-fold
between 2016 and 2021, from 3 petabytes/month in 2016 to 21 petabytes /month in 2021
4. Global connected wearable devices
driving M2M growth
· Cisco estimates there will be 929 million
wearable devices globally, growing nearly threefold from 325 million in 2016
· Globally, the number of wearable devices with
embedded cellular connections will reach 69 million in number by 2021—up from
11 million in 2016.
5. Mobile data traffic
offload to Wi-Fi networks
· In 2016, 60 percent of total mobile data
traffic was offloaded; by 2021, 63 percent of total mobile data traffic will be
offloaded
· In 2016, monthly offload traffic (10.7 EB)
exceeded monthly mobile/cellular traffic (7.2 EB)
· Globally, total public Wi-Fi hotspots
(including homespots) will grow six-fold from 2016 (94.0 million) to 2021
(541.6 million)
· Wi-Fi traffic from both mobile devices and
Wi-Fi-only devices, together, will account for almost half (49 percent) of
total IP traffic by 2020, up from 42 percent in 2015.
6. Regional mobile data traffic growth
(2016 – 2021)
1.
The Middle East and
Africa will have 12-fold growth
(2016: 7.3 exabytes/year; 2021: 88.4 exabytes/year)
2.
Asia-Pacific will have
7-fold growth
(2016: 37.3 exabytes/year; 2021: 274.2 exabytes/year)
3.
Latin America will
have 6-fold growth
(2016: 5.4 exabytes/year; 2021: 34.8
exabytes/year)
4.
Central and Eastern
Europe will have 6-fold growth
(2016: 11.1 exabytes/year; 2021: 63.0 exabytes/year)
5.
Western Europe will
have 6-fold growth
(2016: 8.8 exabytes/year; 2021: 50.3 exabytes/year)
6.
North America will
have 5-fold growth
(2016: 16.9 exabytes/year; 2021: 76.8 exabytes/year)
Cisco Mobile VNI
Forecast Methodology
The Cisco VNI Global
Mobile Data Traffic Forecast (2016‑2021) relies upon independent analyst
forecasts and real-world mobile data usage studies. Upon this foundation are
layered Cisco's own estimates for mobile application adoption, minutes of use
and transmission speeds. Key enablers such as mobile broadband speed and device
computing power are also factored into Cisco mobile VNI projections and
findings. A detailed methodology description is included in the complete report .
