The worst is over for the global economy and a recovery is likely to begin later this year, says a bank report released here.
The global economic crisis has bottomed out and positive indicators have begun to emerge, said the report by the Royal Bank of Canada which is the top bank in the country. It said there were encouraging signs for global recovery as the US economy was showing signs of recovery after worst-ever declines in its GDP in the last quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009.
Thanks to low interest rates, an easing in credit crunch and Obama's fiscal stimulus package, the US housing market is already showing some stability, it said. This, coupled with rising consumer confidence, hints at a moderate recovery for the US economy by the second half of 2009, the report said.
"The benefits of significant fiscal and monetary policy stimulus (in the US) are starting to have traction," said RBC chief economist Craig Wright. He said, "There is an unprecedented amount of money bolstering the world economy."
"What we will be watching is the impact this spending has on labour markets, as well as household and business confidence. The degree of impact will be a crucial factor in shaping economic recovery."
Though the recession has thrown six million Americans out of jobs - pushing the unemployment rate to a record 9.4% in 25 years, the recent data suggests that this rate has started declining, the report said.
It said home sales in the US are also poised to pick up as affordability improves.
But the most potent indicator of the onset of recovery was that US consumer spending has increased after six months of decline.
This trend will continue in the second half of 2009 because of low interest rates, firmer credit markets and fiscal stimulus, the report said.
About Canada, the report said its economy will shrink by 2.4% this year. With over 360,000 jobs lost nationwide since October, consumer confidence will remain low as the unemployment rate peaks at 9.2% by the end of 2009.
The report forecast that the Canadian dollar, which has rallied 15% since March, will hover between 85 to 92 cents US for the remainder of this year.
Agencies
Showing posts with label global economic crisis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label global economic crisis. Show all posts
Tuesday, June 16, 2009
Monday, December 22, 2008
World jobless total could rise by 25 million?
The global economic crisis will push up unemployment by up to 25 million by 2010, the OECD head forecast on a 'truly scandalous failure' of regulatory supervision.
"We're heading for a loss of between eight and 10 million jobs in the OECD area... and 20 to 25 million in the world as a whole between now and 2010," Angel Gurria said on France's BFM radio.
The International Labour Organisation earlier forecast that the number of global unemployed could go up by 20 million to reach a record high point of 210 million people by the end of 2009.
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development in Paris brings together 30 countries, including all the world's industrialised economies. The group conducts research and publishes economic forecasts.
Gurria also said that European countries should spend more in stimulus plans to kickstart their economies and suggested that the European Central Bank should lower interest rates because of falling inflation.
The European Union should "go beyond" the fiscal stimulus plans already announced, equivalent to around 1.4 percent of GDP, since "all the other major countries are going beyond that," Gurria said.
He also said that the OECD economies were in recession in the current quarter and would remain so for at least the first two quarters of 2009, with many countries being in recession for most of 2009.
"We predict a recovery at the end of 2009 and weak growth in 2010" he said.
Commenting on the build-up to the crisis, Gurria said there had been "a truly scandalous failure of regulation... and supervision", and poor risk management and corporate governance by companies.
Meanwhile there was fresh movement to stop the meltdown, with a decision by US president-elect Barack Obama to add 500,000 jobs to a 2.5-million-job creation goal to kickstart the world's biggest and ailing economy.
Vice president-elect Joseph Biden also confirmed the Obama team was working on a second economic stimulus package. According to US media, they want to craft a package worth between 675 and 775 billion dollars over two years.
In Europe, the Irish government said it was injecting 5.5 billion euros (7.6 billion dollars) to recapitalise three major banks: Anglo Irish Bank, Bank of Ireland and Allied Irish Banks.
British Prime Minister Gordon Brown promised to create at least 100,000 new jobs through a 10-billion-pound investment in infrastructure, in a newspaper interview.
The Bank of England's deputy governor John Gieve said in an interview with BBC television that the bank under-estimated how serious the credit crunch would be even though it knew that "crazy borrowing" was taking place.
Gieve said the Bank of England had predicted a correction as far back as two years ago but he added: "We didn't think it was going to be anything like as severe as it turned out to be."
Source: Economic Times
"We're heading for a loss of between eight and 10 million jobs in the OECD area... and 20 to 25 million in the world as a whole between now and 2010," Angel Gurria said on France's BFM radio.
The International Labour Organisation earlier forecast that the number of global unemployed could go up by 20 million to reach a record high point of 210 million people by the end of 2009.
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development in Paris brings together 30 countries, including all the world's industrialised economies. The group conducts research and publishes economic forecasts.
Gurria also said that European countries should spend more in stimulus plans to kickstart their economies and suggested that the European Central Bank should lower interest rates because of falling inflation.
The European Union should "go beyond" the fiscal stimulus plans already announced, equivalent to around 1.4 percent of GDP, since "all the other major countries are going beyond that," Gurria said.
He also said that the OECD economies were in recession in the current quarter and would remain so for at least the first two quarters of 2009, with many countries being in recession for most of 2009.
"We predict a recovery at the end of 2009 and weak growth in 2010" he said.
Commenting on the build-up to the crisis, Gurria said there had been "a truly scandalous failure of regulation... and supervision", and poor risk management and corporate governance by companies.
Meanwhile there was fresh movement to stop the meltdown, with a decision by US president-elect Barack Obama to add 500,000 jobs to a 2.5-million-job creation goal to kickstart the world's biggest and ailing economy.
Vice president-elect Joseph Biden also confirmed the Obama team was working on a second economic stimulus package. According to US media, they want to craft a package worth between 675 and 775 billion dollars over two years.
In Europe, the Irish government said it was injecting 5.5 billion euros (7.6 billion dollars) to recapitalise three major banks: Anglo Irish Bank, Bank of Ireland and Allied Irish Banks.
British Prime Minister Gordon Brown promised to create at least 100,000 new jobs through a 10-billion-pound investment in infrastructure, in a newspaper interview.
The Bank of England's deputy governor John Gieve said in an interview with BBC television that the bank under-estimated how serious the credit crunch would be even though it knew that "crazy borrowing" was taking place.
Gieve said the Bank of England had predicted a correction as far back as two years ago but he added: "We didn't think it was going to be anything like as severe as it turned out to be."
Source: Economic Times
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