By Sebastian PT
A ‘Modi sarkar’—as the BJP puts it—is only a matter of formality on May 16, if one believes opinion polls. The last NDTV-Hansa Research poll gives a clear majority to the BJP and its pre-poll partners. That is, its prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi will not even have to scout and scramble for new allies. The damper, however, is that opinion polls have been notoriously off-the-mark on the last two general elections.
In 2004, most predicted another BJP return on the ‘Shining India’ platform; and, in 2009, the argument that a Third Front could come to power was so convincing that even dusted and grimed politicos such as Lalu Prasad and Ram Vilas Paswan fell bait to it and dumped the Congress.
This time around, there is little doubt that the Congress faces severe anti-incumbency while the BJP is on a roll with Modi as its face. Still, two questions emerge: Is it going to be a cakewalk for the BJP? And, if the numbers don’t add up will Modi still remain the prime ministerial candidate?
Grounded reality?
Modi says the BJP’s tally would be close to what the record numbers Congress got in 1984. However, this could be just election rhetoric. On a realistic note, for Modi to become the Prime Minister, the BJP should be comfortably placed with a personal score of 200 seats and above. Assuming that the current allies score a minimum of 30, with some help from AIADMK chief J Jayalalithaa—who shares a personal rapport with Modi—and perhaps the Telangana Rashtra Samithi, the magic figure of 272 may just get closer. That is, more the BJP gets over the 200-mark, the better it is for Modi.
One of the strongest hypotheses, however, going for the BJP is that the ‘Modi factor’ could help bag around 75 of the 120 seats in the crucial states of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. But is that the true picture? In UP, the polarisation due to Muzaffarnagar riots has certainly helped the BJP in the western parts. The BJP seemed to have gained the Jat votes and even partly the Dalits in the mostly four-cornered fight with the Bahajun Samaj Party, Samajwadi Party and Congress. The Muslim votes though were expected to go split among the later three.
However, things have been changing. Perhaps due to the inflammatory remarks by BJP leader Giriraj Singh and VHP leader Praveen Togadia, Muslims seem going in for tactical voting in central and eastern UP. That is, to back a certain party in a particular constituency that has the best chances of beating the BJP. Yoga guru Baba Ramdev’s ‘honeymoon’ remark also has forced a rethink on those Dalits who were gravitating towards the BJP. All these could drastically change the outcome in many seats.
BSP chief Mayawati has been unusually silent and perhaps a reason why her party is being underestimated. BSP is the only party there that has seen its vote base stay put or even increase, and in 2009 though it bagged only 20 seats was runner-up in more than 45 seats. Even Modi’s Man Friday Amit Shah admits that the fight in UP is mainly with the BSP. Mayawati could well spoil Modi’s party.
A similar scenario seems to be emerging in Bihar with the Lalu Prasad led RJD-Congress combine surging with the Muslim-Yadav vote consolidating. Janata Dal (United) apparently is losing out. In other states, even a small surge in the remaining phases by the Congress and other parties could chip away a few seats from the BJP’s tally.
New allies may veto
AB Vajpayee, in both 1998 and 1999, could successfully lead the National Democratic Alliance government consisting of more than twenty allies when the BJP got 182 seats. However, if the BJP’s tally is about 180 or less in the 16th Lok Sabha, things could be different. Though the possibility of a Third Front could be ruled out, it may be difficult for Modi to charm new, big allies before sending the list of supporters to the President. His recent barbs, for instance, against Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee don’t help.
Who then would become the prime minister in that scenario would largely depend on the new allies who would either join the NDA or support it from outside. Remember, Modi has been projected as BJP’s prime ministerial candidate, not NDA’s. BJD chief Naveen Patnaik and even a Mamata Banerjee and Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar—who between them may get about 50 seats—may not be averse to support an alternative BJP candidate with the tag “to stop Modi”.
That is, if Modi fails to deliver a substantial number for the BJP, his dream of becoming Prime Minister could vanish even if the NDA has a shot at power.
The twilight hope
Things could change within the BJP too. It’s no secret many BJP leaders are scared of being stomped by ‘Prime Minister Modi’. A low tally could embolden them to chant what senior leader MM Joshi said earlier: ‘No Modi wave, only BJP wave’. Realpolitiks could then prevail. In 1989, for instance, though VP Singh was unquestioningly projected as the prime ministerial candidate of the anti-Congress combine, Chandra Shekhar threw his hat in the ring after election results. A similar scenario could happen in the BJP too.
Any change would, of course, need the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh’s approval. While the Sangh ostensibly endorses Modi for the PM post, this may not be the complete picture. Sources indicate that the Sangh has been a bit cautious if not wary of Modi in the past.
The Gujarat chief minister had kept the Sangh at arm’s length there for nearly a decade and warmed up to it only recently towards realising his national dream. Given his authoritarian past, there are fears that once he becomes the PM he would overshadow the Sangh, again. What is also being lost in the din of electioneering is of RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat opposing the chanting of ‘NaMo’, and more importantly his remarks: “The question is not who should form the next government. The bigger question is who should not form the next government.” Much can be read into that.
Let’s then look at some possible contenders. BJP chief Rajnath Singh, who has been conspicuously positioning himself as inheritor of Vajpayee’s legacy; Sushma Swaraj and Arun Jaitley, who is considered close to Modi, have proved themselves as Opposition leaders in the outgoing Parliament; even chief ministers Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Manohar Parikkar are the names doing the rounds. But, the octogenarian LK Advani, who till recently was opposing Modi, may emerge the frontrunner. Advani is not just a respected figure among most political parties, but as any reporter covering BJP in 2005/06 would recall Mohan Bhagwat was the one who came to his rescue in his stand-offs with then RSS chief KS Sudarshan.
Be that as it may be, all the above will be invalid if Modi delivers on the hype built around him. Or, he would just become a stepping-stone for someone else’s march to 7, Race Course Road.
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