Fiscal year 2010 to be more challenging, says RBI chief

Next year will be a more challenging year than this has been but the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will continue to do everything possible to lessen the domestic effects of the global financial crisis, its chief said.

In speech released on Thursday, RBI Governor Duvvuri Subbarao said the outlook for India and the world remained uncertain and the path of the global crisis and its resolution remained unclear.

While the central bank had a roadmap, it was not possible to deploy it all in one go.

"It would be our endeavour to adapt this roadmap to the evolving global developments and implement it flexibly and pragmatically," he said.

"Our approach, as indeed of every prudent central banker around the world, has been to 'cross the river by feeling the stones'."

Subbarao said India's economic fundamentals remained strong, but developments in the real economy, financial markets and global commodity prices pointed to a period of moderating growth and declining inflation.

"The year 2009-10 will be more challenging than the current one," he said.

"The RBI will continue to be on vigil and do everything possible within its mandate to mitigate the impact of the crisis on the Indian economy."

Since mid-October, the central bank has lowered its key lending rate by 250 basis points to 6.5 percent to shield the economy from the spillover of the global credit crisis.

It has also aggressively slashed banks' reserve requirements to shore up growth, which many expect to slow to 7 percent in the fiscal year which ends in March from 9 percent in 2007/08.

The government bond market is widely expecting interest rates to fall again soon, with the benchmark 10-year bond yield dropping 30 basis points on Thursday to 5.50 percent.

Subbarao noted inflation had been declining for the four weeks before he spoke, pointing to a faster-than-expected reduction in the pace of rising prices, while a recent cut in state-set fuel prices should further ease inflation pressures.

Data on Thursday showed India's wholesale price index, its most widely watched inflation measure, rose 6.84 percent in the 12 months to Dec. 6, sharply below the previous week's 8 percent and lower than a Reuters estimate of 7.49 percent.

Source: Agencies