Scaling India’s Renewables Beyond 1,500 GW Will Face Considerable Land, Water, Population, And Climate Challenges: CEEW

-India’s unconstrained RE potential exceeds 24,000 GW, but not all of it is achievable

-Odisha and Madhya Pradesh emerge as new states that can bolster India’s RE ambitions

-Green hydrogen production could reach 40 MTPA by 2050, but water management is critical

India has a renewable energy (RE) potential of over 24,000 GW, but even reaching the ~7,000 GW required to achieve net-zero emissions by 2070 will require a holistic approach to addressing challenges such as land access, climate risks, land conflicts, and population density, according to a new independent study by the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW). India currently has an installed RE capacity of 150 GW, and up to 1,500 GW, the constraints are relatively manageable.

The study, ‘Unlocking India’s RE and Green Hydrogen Potential: An Assessment of Land, Water, and Climate Nexus’, highlights that deployment beyond 1,500 GW could face critical challenges as multiple constraints intensify, narrowing the runway to reach the net-zero target. Renewable energy, including solar, wind, and green hydrogen, is crucial to realise India’s climate goals, but scaling up these technologies will require strategic land use, improved water management, and resilient power grid infrastructure.

The CEEW study is the first-of-its-kind to map India’s RE and green hydrogen potential by analysing the entire country’s landmass and applying real-world constraints. It does this by using detailed 5x5 km grid cells, which offer a more practical assessment of what can actually be developed and where. The CEEW study finds that population density significantly limits the realisation of India’s RE potential, with only 29 per cent of onshore wind potential and 27 per cent of solar potential located in areas with a population density lower than 250 people/km2. Land conflicts further restrict deployment, with only about 35 per cent of onshore wind potential and 41 per cent of solar potential located in areas free from historical land conflicts. However, earthquakes are less of a concern, as 83 per cent of onshore wind and 77 per cent of solar potential are located in low to moderate seismic zones.

The CEEW study also identifies states with high unconstrained RE potential such as Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Ladakh. Rajasthan (6,464 GW), Madhya Pradesh (2,978 GW), Maharashtra (2,409 GW) and Ladakh (625 GW) have significant low-cost solar potential, while Karnataka (293 GW), Gujarat (212 GW), and Maharashtra (184 GW) offer considerable wind potential.

Dr Arunabha Ghosh, CEO, CEEW, said, “India stands at a pivotal juncture in its energy transition. It has set out to do the near impossible: provide energy access to millions of people, clean up one of the world’s largest energy systems, and become a green industrial powerhouse. While our RE potential is vast, the road to net zero is fraught with challenges. From land conflicts and population density to the unpredictable but undeniable impact of climate change, every step forward will demand resilience and innovation. The CEEW study, for the first time, goes into granular details of the county’s landmass to map out where we can build out renewable energy and green hydrogen projects while addressing the challenges of land, people, and compounding, non-linear climate risks. The scale of the task ahead is monumental, yet it is precisely this challenge that will define India’s legacy as a trailblazer for the Global South—a country that charts a low-carbon pathway to prosperity against all odds.”

Notably, the CEEW study highlighted that Odisha and Madhya Pradesh, with high RE potential backed by land banks and infrastructure to evacuate renewable power and manage seasonality, could emerge as key players in meeting India’s renewable energy ambitions in the coming decades. Further, a considerable portion of India’s RE potential is in high-climate-risk and high-land-price areas—only 18 per cent of onshore wind potential and 22 per cent of solar potential are located in areas with low climate risks and low land prices, when looked at in isolation. However, the challenges to realising this potential increase too when other constraints such as population density, land conflicts and seasonality of solar power are factored in.

Hemant Mallya, Fellow, CEEW, said, “Land and water are critical resources for scaling up RE and green hydrogen in India. Prevention of desertification and innovative solutions to address land availability, such as agro-voltaics in horticulture and rooftop solar in dense Indian cities, will be essential. Moreover, as RE projects move into areas with higher climate risks, insurance companies could increasingly hesitate to provide coverage. Involving all stakeholders in the early stage of renewable project development and addressing climate risks will help ensure projects are commercially viable in the long run.”

Green hydrogen could also become very important to India’s clean energy transition. The CEEW study estimates that the country could produce around 40 MTPA at a cost lower than USD 3.5/kg. Water availability and management impact the cost of green hydrogen projects. This cost is expected to decrease further with advancements in electrolyser technology and more efficient RE systems. Low-cost green hydrogen could be produced in western and southern India, with Gujarat leading the production with an estimated potential of 8.8 MTPA at less than USD 3.5/kg, followed by Karnataka and Maharashtra with 5 MTPA each.

Finally, the CEEW study recommends a comprehensive approach that includes all stakeholders to ensure that India’s ambitious RE and green hydrogen targets are met sustainably and equitably. First, validating potential using higher-quality data and on-ground assessments is crucial, as current data may not fully reflect real conditions. States should establish graded land banks that consider RE quality, water availability, and proximity to infrastructure to ensure rapid project development. Evaluating and enhancing grid infrastructure and resilience are essential, particularly in regions with high RE seasonality, to support large-scale deployment. Additionally, revising water management policies to prioritise energy production and assessing the need for surface water storage will be vital to sustaining green hydrogen production and mitigating resource challenges.

Limitations: The accuracy of CEEW’s analysis is limited by certain constraints – circle rates usage for estimating market price, lack of data on social and cultural aspects related to land, lack of power grid mapping to determine RE evacuation potential, and use-modeling to estimate levelised cost of electricity and green hydrogen.

A CEEW Interactive — The Great Indian RE Challenge is an explainer to understand how multiple challenges could emerge simultaneously as India ambitiously scales up its renewable energy capacity. Play it here.

Video — Every Question You Wanted to Ask on India’s Road to Net Zero: Watch this video to understand how these findings could shape India’s renewable energy future.

Study — Read ‘Unlocking India’s RE and Green Hydrogen Potential: An Assessment of Land, Water, and Climate Nexus’ by Hemant Mallya, Deepak Yadav, Anushka Maheshwari, Nitin Bassi, and Prerna Prabhakar here.

About CEEW

The Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW) is one of Asia’s leading not-for-profit policy research institutions and among the world’s top climate think tanks. The Council uses data, integrated analysis, and strategic outreach to explain — and change — the use, reuse, and misuse of resources. The Council addresses pressing global challenges through an integrated and internationally focused approach. It prides itself on the independence of its high-quality research, develops partnerships with public and private institutions, and engages with the wider public. CEEW has a footprint in over 20 Indian states and has repeatedly featured among the world’s best-managed and independent think tanks. Follow us on X (formerly Twitter) @CEEWIndia for the latest updates.