Ficci Survey Puts Q4, 2019 India's GDP Growth at 6.5 Percent

India’s GDP likely grew 6.5% in the fourth quarter ended March 2019, said an economic outlook survey of industry chamber Ficci on Thursday.

The Central Statistics Office (CSO) will release the official data on Friday.

Ficci said survey has put forth an annual median GDP growth forecast for 2019-20 at 7.1% and the projection for fiscal 2020-21 has been put at 7.2%. “The minimum and maximum growth estimate stood at 6.8% and 7.3%, respectively, for 2019-20 in the survey, which was conducted in May 2019 among economists belonging to the industry, banking and financial services sector,” it said.

The median growth forecast for agriculture and allied activities has been put at 3% for 2019-20. Industry and services sector are expected to grow by 6.9% and 8%, respectively, during the year. The outlook of participating economists on inflation remained moderate, the chamber said.

The Wholesale Price Index (WPI)-based inflation rate is projected at 3.1% in 2019-20, with a minimum and maximum range of 2.1% and 4%, respectively.

On the contrary, the survey found that retail inflation has a median forecast of 4% for 2019-20.

Participants also expressed that concerns remain on the external front with median current account deficit forecast pegged at 2.1% of GDP for 2019-20.

Median export growth is pegged at 4% in the financial year 2019-20. Imports, on the other hand, are forecast to grow at 3.8% in the same year.

Ficci further said that the majority of the participating economists believed that the US’ decision to end waiver granted to countries amid sanctions imposed on Iran is significant and will affect major oil-importing countries, including India.

This becomes a major concern at a time when international prices of crude oil have been on the rise due to other factors such as supply constraints being undertaken by OPEC countries, the survey said.