Will oil, gas spending drop in 2009?

Global spending on oil and gas exploration and production will shrink 12 per cent to $400 billion in 2009 as the steep slide in energy prices and tight credit markets reverse a six-year trend of rising budgets, analysts at Barclays Capital said on Friday.

Those spending cuts threat to curtail growth in oil and gas output, potentially supporting energy prices that have been in a freefall since hitting peaks in July. A steady stream of energy companies have been announcing budget cuts for 2009 as the price of oil slumped this week to its lowest levels in 4-1/2 years, and Barclays said that could be pushing spending even lower than its report showed.

Another analyst agreed, saying companies were being prudent during the economic crunch to protect cash reserves they had built up during the four-year run-up in energy prices. "My guess is the (report) is probably overstating what is going to be spent," said analyst James Halloran of National City Private Client Group, which manages $26 billon in assets.

Analysts said that while the drop in spending threatens to slow down growth in world energy production, the impact depends on how the smaller budgets are used. "It may be that a combination of higher utilization of more efficient rigs and lower costs of drilling will equal or more than compensate for the decline in the absolute amount of capital devoted to upstream expenditures," said Edward Morse, chief economist at LCM Commodities.

He added that oil firms may be negotiating with their suppliers and contractors to lower project costs. The soft energy market has also darkened the world oil supply picture by leading OPEC to announce three rounds of cuts that would trim 4.2 million barrels per day of oil production, or 5 percent of global output.

Spending in the United States is expected to show the sharpest drop, falling 26 percent to $79 billion from the 2008 mark of $106 billion, Barclays analysts James Crandell and James West said in their semiannual report based on a survey of oil and gas companies.

In the United States, Chesapeake Energy, the largest US natural gas producer, is expected to cut spending by 51 percent, the analysts said, while Devon Energy is likely to cut by 44 percent, EOG Resources by 34 percent and SandRidge Energy by 78 percent.

Oil prices peaked above $147 a barrel in July, but have tumbled more than 75 percent since then to trade near $35.75 a barrel as economic weakness hits fuel demand. Shares of oilfield service companies face the greatest risks from the cuts in spending, since it is their drilling rigs, maintenance operations and other activities that energy producers reduce when budgets are slashed.

But those stocks have already been battered, Halloran said, and may see only a limited impact from new reports of spending cuts. The Philadelphia Oil Service index, which includes companies like Schlumberger Ltd, Halliburton Co and Transocean Ltd, has fallen 68 percent since July.

Still, the Barclays analysts said they recommended shares of Weatherford International, Halliburton, Cameron International, Oceaneering International, Tidewater, Dril-Quip, Core Laboratories NV as the best sector bets.

Regions under pressure

Overall, companies' Canadian spending budgets will fall 23 percent to $22 billion, the lowest level since 1999. Husky Energy is likely to cut its spending 47 percent in Canada, while Devon's budget there will fall 71 percent, Talisman Energy by 47 percent and EnCana Corp by 16 percent.

Spending in the United States by Exxon Mobil, the world's largest publicly traded oil company, is likely to drop 17 percent, or $450 million, to $2.15 billion, while its Canadian budget will shrink 14 percent to $375 million. Its spending elswhere will rise 14 percent to $14.98 billion.

The overall drop in spending outside North America is expected to be a more moderate 6 percent to $300 billion. Russia, the UK North Sea, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela were expected to see some of the sharpest spending declines, while the rest of the Middle East, North Africa and Mexico were likely to post increases.

In 2008, spending rose about 22 percent globally, the analysts said. The analysts said the budget forecasts were based on average prices of $58 per barrel for oil and $6.35 per thousand cubic feet for natural gas.

Source; Agencies