Global investment banks Merrill Lynch and Goldman Sachs, which had earlier this year forecast oil prices would surge to USD 200 per barrel level, now foresee it slipping to USD 25-30 level, while Indian analysts anticipate a strong resistance at 40 dollars.
After hitting a peak of over 147 dollars in July this year, crude oil prices have declined sharply and are currently trading near 45 dollars level.
Goldman Sachs' commodity research team in its latest research note has predicted that the oil price might slip to 30 dollars per barrel level in the next three months.
Meanwhile, the firm's energy equity research team, led by Arjun Murti, said in another report that it is cutting its forecast for 2009 to 45 dollars, from 80 dollars previously, due to global economic slowdown.
Murti, who is known as 'oil guru', had shot to fame for rightly predicting a spike in the price to USD 100 when it was trading at around USD 40 level. Later in May, Murti forecast a spike to 150-200 dollars level in the next 6-24 months.
In an interview with the stock market weekly Barron's in June, when oil price were hovering at about 135 dollars, Murti had said that oil prices might fall below 75 dollars, but after 20 years.
The latest report from Murti's team has, however, said that there was a possibility of prices falling below USD 40 level shortly.
Indian analysts, however, see a strong resistance to the oil prices slipping below USD 40 level and do not foresee any possibility of USD 25-30 level.
"Crude oil prices may not fall below 40 dollar a barrel. Rather it will consolidate at 40 dollar a barrel level," Kotak Commodoties Vice President Si Kannan said.
Source: Agencies
I think oil has probably bottomed ~$40 for the next few weeks at least. OPEC will announce a dramatic cut in production this week (potentially along with Russia) and I believe that will keep prices in the $40-$60 range unless much more horrible recession news emerges. In the case of worse news, I believe OPEC will cut to protect a price level toward $65 per barrel.
ReplyDeleteUS gasoline prices finally stopped falling last weekend after 86 straight days. See details at:
http://setenergy.org/2008/12/14/after-86-days-gas-prices-stop-falling/
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Onwards to sustainability,
Dennis